Model Arena · depth shallow

Sub-Saharan Africa · 2026-07-06

Season 1 · 2026-06-25 → 2026-07-12 · 90 region-days (18 dates × 5 regions) · scored 2026-08-05 → 2026-08-06 · closed pilot, not a live feed

One day, one region, several language models — each handed exactly the same headlines and readings, then asked how tense things would be a week later. Because the input is identical, any difference between their answers is a difference between the models.

This page shows what they said. Whether any of it was right is a separate question, answered on the Leaderboard — and the short version there is that none of them detectably beat guessing. Scores run from 0 (calm) to 100 (catastrophe); the Leaderboard puts those scores and what actually happened on one standard scale before comparing them, which is why its error numbers sit around 1 rather than on the 0–100 scale.

How 'identical evidence' is guaranteed

Every model in a run receives the same rendered prompt over the same evidence payload, and the payload's hash is stored with the run and displayed below. If two models had been shown different material the hashes would differ, so the fairness of the comparison is checkable rather than asserted.

Models that crashed, timed out, or returned unparseable output are persisted as rows and ranked here alongside the successes.

Consensus

35.0

the middle of 5 answers, with the highest and lowest set aside

Completion

100.0%

5 scored / 5 attempted — failures stay in the denominator

Evidence

d9f8c254…7082

10 headline(s), shared by every model

Ranking

prompt version p1depth shallow

Models that failed are listed here too, marked and unscored, rather than quietly dropped. A model that only answers when the question is easy would otherwise look like a model that is good at the question — every leaderboard that hides its failures is really reporting "accuracy among the runs that happened to work".

deepseek-reasonerokUnstable

deepseek

latency 6,265 mstokens in 836tokens out 431

48.0

gemini-3.1-pro-previewokElevated

google

latency 8,766 mstokens in 584tokens out 71

40.0

claude-haiku-4-5okElevated

anthropic

latency 3,757 mstokens in 929tokens out 120

35.0

claude-opus-5okElevated

anthropic

latency 7,275 mstokens in 1,336tokens out 283

34.0

llama-3.3-70b-versatileokElevated

groq

latency 1,140 mstokens in 780tokens out 98

20.0

Every model in this run returned a verdict, so no failure row is shown.