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Model Arena · depth shallow

Europe · 2026-07-08

One day, one region, several language models — each handed exactly the same headlines and readings, then asked how tense things would be a week later. Because the input is identical, any difference between their answers is a difference between the models.

This page shows what they said. Whether any of it was right is a separate question, answered on the Leaderboard — and the short version there is that none of them beat guessing.

How 'identical evidence' is guaranteed

Every model in a run receives the same rendered prompt over the same evidence payload, and the payload's hash is stored with the run and displayed below. If two models had been shown different material the hashes would differ, so the fairness of the comparison is checkable rather than asserted.

Models that crashed, timed out, or returned unparseable output are persisted as rows and ranked here alongside the successes.

Consensus
42.0
trimmed median over 5 ok score(s); 2 trimmed
Completion
100.0%
5 scored / 5 attempted — failures stay in the denominator
Evidence
59fce0a2…fb52
10 headline(s), shared by every model

Ranking

prompt p1depth shallow

Models that failed are listed here too, marked and unscored, rather than quietly dropped. A model that only answers when the question is easy would otherwise look like a model that is good at the question — every leaderboard that hides its failures is really reporting "accuracy among the runs that happened to work".

1
deepseek-reasonerokUnstable
deepseek
latency 5,912 mstokens in 838tokens out 358
45.0
2
gemini-3.1-pro-previewokElevated
google
latency 9,087 mstokens in 556tokens out 67
45.0
3
claude-haiku-4-5okElevated
anthropic
latency 3,264 mstokens in 902tokens out 108
42.0
4
llama-3.3-70b-versatileokElevated
groq
latency 1,056 mstokens in 781tokens out 99
40.0
5
claude-opus-5okElevated
anthropic
latency 6,515 mstokens in 1,303tokens out 216
26.0

Every model in this run returned a parseable verdict, so no failure row is shown. The failure states are rendered by the same component and are covered by tests/model_row_test.tsx.