1
gemini-3.1-pro-previewokSevere
google
75.0
Model Arena · depth shallow
Middle East & North Africa · 2026-07-12
Season 1 · 2026-06-25 → 2026-07-12 · 90 region-days (18 dates × 5 regions) · scored 2026-08-05 → 2026-08-06 · closed pilot, not a live feed
One day, one region, several language models — each handed exactly the same headlines and readings, then asked how tense things would be a week later. Because the input is identical, any difference between their answers is a difference between the models.
This page shows what they said. Whether any of it was right is a separate question, answered on the Leaderboard — and the short version there is that none of them detectably beat guessing. Scores run from 0 (calm) to 100 (catastrophe); the Leaderboard puts those scores and what actually happened on one standard scale before comparing them, which is why its error numbers sit around 1 rather than on the 0–100 scale.
How 'identical evidence' is guaranteed
Every model in a run receives the same rendered prompt over the same evidence payload, and the payload's hash is stored with the run and displayed below. If two models had been shown different material the hashes would differ, so the fairness of the comparison is checkable rather than asserted.
Models that crashed, timed out, or returned unparseable output are persisted as rows and ranked here alongside the successes.
Consensus
65.0
the middle of 5 answers, with the highest and lowest set aside
Completion
100.0%
5 scored / 5 attempted — failures stay in the denominator
Evidence
ec06afb6…36ed
10 headline(s), shared by every model
Ranking
prompt version p1depth shallow
Models that failed are listed here too, marked and unscored, rather than quietly dropped. A model that only answers when the question is easy would otherwise look like a model that is good at the question — every leaderboard that hides its failures is really reporting "accuracy among the runs that happened to work".
2
claude-opus-5okSevere
anthropic
68.0
3
deepseek-reasonerokUnstable
deepseek
65.0
4
llama-3.3-70b-versatileokUnstable
groq
60.0
5
claude-haiku-4-5okElevated
anthropic
42.0
Every model in this run returned a verdict, so no failure row is shown.