Configurations

Instead of asking which single pressure matters most, this page asks whether some combination of the five reliably comes before things getting worse — say high energy and high geopolitical together, while economic stays low. Each such recipe is a configuration, and with five pressures there are exactly 32 of them.

All 32 are listed, including combinations no day ever actually matched. A recipe passes only if escalation followed it reliably enough — the conventional bar is 0.80 out of 1.

Why all 32, and how the scores are computed

Corners are enumerated rather than grouped over observed patterns: a corner nobody lived through still has to be scoreable, and still has to be marked as never lived through rather than as having scored zero. Zero would claim we looked and found nothing; unobserved says the combination never arose.

Consistency and coverage are summed over every case, weighted by that case's membership in the corner — not over the subset whose crisped pattern matches exactly. Restricting to crisp matches discards the partial memberships that fuzzy sets exist to carry, and it inflates consistency: this project measured 1.000 against a true 0.948 on the same corner before the summation was fixed.

Recipe set

v3 · k=7 · median@0.007235 v1 · k=7 · median@0.202645

A set is the whole key (anchor_version, outcome_name, outcome_rule, horizon_k), not four independent choices: the median split moves as data accumulates, so each anchor version carries its own threshold and the two are only meaningful together.

No combination of pressures reliably precedes escalation

None of the 32 combinations passes. The best of them was followed by escalation 53% of the time, and the bar is 80%. So there is no pattern of these five pressures that reliably comes before things getting worse 7 days later.

That is a complete answer rather than an empty table. Every combination was checked and scored; the scores are shown in full below, next to the bar they had to clear.

Corners enumerated

the full 2⁵ space

Never happened

combinations no real day ever matched — scored, but not eligible to be reported as findings

Reliable enough (0.8+)

counting reliability alone — before the other two bars are applied

Truth table · 32 corners

must be right 0.8+ of the timemust explain 0.1+ of escalationmust have happened at least once

The vertical mark in every bar is the 0.8 pass line. It is drawn on rows that fall far short of it on purpose: a table where no bar reaches the line should look like a measured result, not like a rendering error.

#	Configuration	Consistency how often escalation actually followed — must reach 0.8	Coverage share of all escalation this recipe accounts for	Cases real days matching this recipe	Result
1	climate~digital~economicenergy~geopolitical	0.5265	0.1679	39	below bar
2	~climate~digital~economic~energy~geopolitical	0.5214	0.2197	183	below bar
3	~climate~digital~economicenergy~geopolitical	0.5210	0.1515	29	below bar
4	climate~digitaleconomicenergy~geopolitical	0.5178	0.1836	116	below bar
5	climate~digital~economic~energy~geopolitical	0.5139	0.1738	40	below bar
6	climate~digital~economicenergygeopolitical	0.5137	0.1296	15	below bar
7	climate~digitaleconomicenergygeopolitical	0.5132	0.1176	16	below bar
8	climatedigitaleconomicenergy~geopolitical	0.5116	0.2148	170	below bar
9	~climate~digitaleconomicenergy~geopolitical	0.5075	0.1232	11	below bar
10	climate~digitaleconomic~energy~geopolitical	0.5065	0.1622	60	below bar
11	~climate~digitaleconomic~energy~geopolitical	0.5055	0.1285	16	below bar
12	climatedigitaleconomicenergygeopolitical	0.5047	0.1811	228	below bar
13	climate~digital~economic~energygeopolitical	0.5001	0.1334	16	below bar
14	climatedigital~economicenergy~geopolitical	0.4996	0.1490	34	below bar
15	~climate~digital~economicenergygeopolitical	0.4980	0.1421	64	below bar
16	climatedigital~economicenergygeopolitical	0.4969	0.1229	30	below bar
17	~climate~digital~economic~energygeopolitical	0.4964	0.2371	276	below bar
18	~climate~digitaleconomicenergygeopolitical	0.4943	0.1070	8	below bar
19	climate~digitaleconomic~energygeopolitical	0.4926	0.1024	5	below bar
20	climatedigitaleconomic~energy~geopolitical	0.4890	0.1618	65	below bar
21	~climatedigitaleconomicenergy~geopolitical	0.4883	0.1337	29	below bar
22	climatedigital~economic~energygeopolitical	0.4874	0.1144	9	below bar
23	climatedigital~economic~energy~geopolitical	0.4859	0.1389	20	below bar
24	climatedigitaleconomic~energygeopolitical	0.4795	0.1112	22	below bar
25	~climate~digitaleconomic~energygeopolitical	0.4795	0.1165	4	below bar
26	~climatedigitaleconomic~energy~geopolitical	0.4794	0.1335	40	below bar
27	~climatedigital~economicenergy~geopolitical	0.4750	0.1205	15	below bar
28	~climatedigitaleconomicenergygeopolitical	0.4745	0.1233	47	below bar
29	~climatedigital~economic~energy~geopolitical	0.4730	0.1353	38	below bar
30	~climatedigitaleconomic~energygeopolitical	0.4652	0.1241	54	below bar
31	~climatedigital~economicenergygeopolitical	0.4629	0.1154	40	below bar
32	~climatedigital~economic~energygeopolitical	0.4629	0.1354	51	below bar

"Never happened" is not the same as "scored zero." A row marked never happened is a combination no day in the sample ever matched — known in the method as a logical remainder. It was scored like every other row, but from partial fits alone, so it says nothing about what would follow if such a day did occur. A row marked below bar is the opposite: real days matched it, and things still did not reliably get worse afterwards. Showing the two the same way is the single error this screen exists to prevent, because a combination that never occurred, reported as a finding, is a claim about a world that never happened.

Every combination in this set was matched by at least one real day, so nothing here is marked as never-happened. Under an earlier anchor version — selectable above — the memberships were harsher and whole corners went unvisited, which is what the marker is for.