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Evidence inspector

Europe · 2026-06-25

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Region
Asia-PacificEuropeMiddle East & North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaNorth America
Depth profile
shallow
Date
2026-07-122026-07-112026-07-102026-07-092026-07-082026-07-072026-07-062026-07-052026-07-042026-07-032026-07-022026-07-012026-06-302026-06-292026-06-282026-06-272026-06-262026-06-25
Evidence hash
62eeade3502efb403c8d366fed738f04a66304429577d7cfe0463f81296dccea

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about Europe on 2026-06-25 was in the prompt.

03

Europe's Geopolitical Energy Premium

Summary. Europe's energy security faces a paradoxical threat: falling oil prices. While high prices highlight vulnerabilities, lower prices foster complacency,...

forbes.com
08

Europe’s Heatwave Foreshadows Worse to Come

Missed Connections · coverage of the heat dome bringing sweltering temperatures to central Europe earlier this week. · pointed out in its amber warning: “It is...

coveringclimatenow.org

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 21.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
45.0
okUnstable

Europe is enduring record-breaking heatwaves that are testing climate resilience, while energy security concerns and proposed climate policy rollbacks add to systemic strain. These factors indicate elevated instability but no immediate threat of collapse or widespread conflict.

evidence 62eeade3502e…prompt p1
claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
42.0
okElevated

Europe faces compounding environmental and policy challenges, including record-breaking heatwaves driven by climate change, energy security vulnerabilities amid price volatility, and political pressure to weaken climate commitments during a crisis. However, the evidence shows ongoing institutional responses (climate awards, electric vehicle adoption) and no acute geopolitical conflict or immediate systemic collapse, keeping the situation in the elevated rather than unstable range despite serious medium-term risks to resilience and cohesion across member states.

evidence 62eeade3502e…prompt p1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
40.0
okElevated

Europe is currently grappling with severe, record-breaking heatwaves that are testing the region's climate resilience and exacerbating ongoing industrial and energy policy debates. While environmental stress and economic frictions present notable challenges, the absence of acute geopolitical conflict or systemic institutional failure keeps the overall instability at an elevated but manageable level.

evidence 62eeade3502e…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
40.0
okElevated

The region is experiencing extreme heatwaves and energy security concerns, which are testing Europe's climate resilience, but there are also efforts to address these issues, such as the LIFE WetLands4CLIMATE initiative and strong electric car sales. However, proposed climate policy rollbacks and global energy shocks pose a threat to the region's stability, contributing to the elevated chaos score.

evidence 62eeade3502e…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
24.0
okElevated

The evidence centers on a record-breaking June heatwave straining infrastructure and climate resilience, alongside contentious EU climate policy rollbacks and debates over energy security and industrial competitiveness. There are no indications of violence, unrest, or institutional breakdown, so instability is limited to environmental stress and policy friction.

evidence 62eeade3502e…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.