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Evidence inspector

Middle East & North Africa · 2026-06-25

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Region
Asia-PacificEuropeMiddle East & North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaNorth America
Depth profile
shallow
Date
2026-07-122026-07-112026-07-102026-07-092026-07-082026-07-072026-07-062026-07-052026-07-042026-07-032026-07-022026-07-012026-06-302026-06-292026-06-282026-06-272026-06-262026-06-25
Evidence hash
fcb7feb5351f6a8fc4394c72a5b1a7f4dc9a1cfba4bfb133cdf042bc73c00a75

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about Middle East & North Africa on 2026-06-25 was in the prompt.

07

U.S./Iran: After the ‘truce’

The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) reduces the risks of conflict-driven economic weakness and market volatility, in our opinion. The truce, however...

rbcwealthmanagement.com
08

Deterrence and defence

NATO is a defensive alliance. Its members are committed to safeguarding the freedom and security of all Allies, against all threats, from all directions.

nato.int

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 20.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
65.0
okUnstable

A recent de-escalation agreement and ongoing peace talks between the United States and Iran have paused active hostilities, significantly reducing immediate conflict risks in the region. However, underlying geopolitical tensions remain unresolved, leaving the Middle East in a fragile, volatile post-war transition period.

evidence fcb7feb5351f…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
60.0
okSevere

Evidence points to a recent Israel–US–Iran war now in a fragile truce phase, with commentary framing the MoU as a possible tactical pause rather than a resolution, indicating unresolved escalation risk. Falling oil prices and easing market volatility suggest active hostilities have subsided, but regional realignment, energy-security disruption and strained oil-dependent economies keep instability high.

evidence fcb7feb5351f…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
60.0
okUnstable

The region is experiencing heightened tensions and volatility due to the ongoing Iran war and its impact on global energy security and geopolitics, with evidence of fracturing global energy transitions and increased market volatility. However, the presence of ongoing peace talks and a truce between the U.S. and Iran suggests that the situation, although unstable, is not yet at a critical point.

evidence fcb7feb5351f…prompt p1
deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
55.0
okUnstable

The Middle East remains in a fragile state as the Iran war continues to shape regional geopolitics, though a U.S.-Iran truce and ongoing peace talks signal de-escalation. Persistent geopolitical tensions, oil price volatility, and energy transition disruptions keep the region unstable but not in full crisis.

evidence fcb7feb5351f…prompt p1
claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
45.0
okElevated

The evidence indicates an Iran war has occurred with recent peace talks and a U.S.-Iran de-escalation agreement (MoU) in place, suggesting active conflict resolution efforts are underway. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions, energy market volatility, and cautious assessments about whether this represents a genuine turning point rather than a tactical pause suggest the region remains in a fragile state of elevated instability rather than acute crisis.

evidence fcb7feb5351f…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.