●ChaosWatch
New here? Start here →
Evidence inspector

Sub-Saharan Africa · 2026-06-25

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Region
Asia-PacificEuropeMiddle East & North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaNorth America
Depth profile
shallow
Date
2026-07-122026-07-112026-07-102026-07-092026-07-082026-07-072026-07-062026-07-052026-07-042026-07-032026-07-022026-07-012026-06-302026-06-292026-06-282026-06-272026-06-262026-06-25
Evidence hash
e355f1383fe8acc0dae4b775eedd0744bcac988a02b30fbcfb243ef8ef8c2032

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about Sub-Saharan Africa on 2026-06-25 was in the prompt.

09

Energy access progress stalls

IRENA's latest Tracking SDG 7 report warns that progress towards universal energy access is slowing, with 655 million people still without electricity .

utilities-me.com

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 15.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
35.0
okElevated

News highlights economic challenges from geopolitical spillover and a large energy access gap, but also shows significant investment flows into energy projects. The absence of reported conflict or political upheaval keeps the score moderate.

evidence e355f1383fe8…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
30.0
okElevated

The day's evidence is dominated by investment, energy-access financing and exploration news, with no reports of active conflict, coups, or violent unrest in the region. Elevated rather than fully stable given the IMF's warning of Middle East conflict spillover and chronic structural strain — a $15bn energy financing gap and 600+ million people without electricity.

evidence e355f1383fe8…prompt p1
claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
28.0
okStable

Sub-Saharan Africa demonstrates economic resilience with significant foreign investment in energy infrastructure, oil exploration reloading, and renewable energy projects despite acknowledged energy access gaps. While external Middle East conflicts pose economic headwinds and energy poverty remains a critical development challenge, the region shows positive momentum through multilateral financing, private sector engagement, and diversified investment across multiple energy sectors rather than signs of acute instability or conflict escalation within SSA itself.

evidence e355f1383fe8…prompt p1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
25.0
okStable

Sub-Saharan Africa shows steady economic activity with significant foreign investments in renewable energy and oil exploration, indicating a baseline of regional stability. However, chronic energy poverty and warnings from the IMF regarding external economic fallout from Middle East conflicts keep the region's developmental challenges in focus.

evidence e355f1383fe8…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
20.0
okElevated

The region is experiencing a mix of positive developments, such as increased investment in renewable energy and efforts to expand energy access, but also faces challenges like stalled progress towards universal energy access and potential economic fallout from the Middle East conflict. Overall, the situation is elevated but not critical, with various stakeholders working to address the region's energy and economic challenges.

evidence e355f1383fe8…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.