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Evidence inspector

Europe · 2026-06-26

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Region
Asia-PacificEuropeMiddle East & North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaNorth America
Depth profile
shallow
Date
2026-07-122026-07-112026-07-102026-07-092026-07-082026-07-072026-07-062026-07-052026-07-042026-07-032026-07-022026-07-012026-06-302026-06-292026-06-282026-06-272026-06-262026-06-25
Evidence hash
a28903a28b44313753bf9c07e073433d274f2c68bb44d75e46740c4c24555f48

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about Europe on 2026-06-26 was in the prompt.

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 36.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
68.0
okSevere

Europe is enduring a record-breaking heatwave that scientists term 'virtually impossible' without human-induced climate change, causing life-threatening temperatures and new June records across the continent. While political responses remain insufficient and ransomware adds cyber strain, the evidence does not indicate a collapse of basic infrastructure or governance.

evidence a28903a28b44…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
60.0
okUnstable

The region is experiencing a record-breaking heatwave, with scientists confirming that human-caused climate change is the primary driver, leading to life-threatening temperatures and breaking historical records. While the heatwave poses significant risks to the population, the presence of ransomware gangs targeting third-party suppliers adds to the instability, but the overall situation does not indicate complete collapse or annihilation.

evidence a28903a28b44…prompt p1
claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
42.0
okElevated

Europe faces a severe record-breaking heatwave in June 2026 with confirmed human-caused climate change attribution, creating immediate public health risks and infrastructure strain across major cities. However, the evidence is limited to environmental/climate crisis without reports of political instability, conflict, economic collapse, or systemic governance failure that would indicate higher chaos levels, though one mention of ransomware threats suggests emerging cyber vulnerabilities alongside the climate emergency.

evidence a28903a28b44…prompt p1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
35.0
okElevated

A severe, record-breaking heatwave is causing life-threatening conditions across Europe, straining public health and infrastructure. Additionally, rising ransomware attacks targeting third-party suppliers introduce moderate cybersecurity vulnerabilities to the region's supply chains.

evidence a28903a28b44…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
32.0
okElevated

Evidence centers on a record-breaking, deadly heatwave across Europe with EU warnings of life-threatening temperatures and attribution studies calling it the region's most severe June event, indicating genuine public-health strain and political friction over climate response. However, there is no sign of conflict, governance breakdown, or unrest, and the only secondary stressor is rising ransomware and third-party supplier cyber risk, keeping overall instability moderate.

evidence a28903a28b44…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.