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Evidence inspector

Europe · 2026-06-27

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Evidence hash
370ee129c0f427544d0c53922366c34e3a6fa625a3be44d5f87a32f5bf655837

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about Europe on 2026-06-27 was in the prompt.

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 40.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
72.0
okSevere

Record-breaking heatwaves across Europe have caused widespread disruption to transport and hospitals, with scientists confirming these extremes are impossible without climate change and that the continent remains critically unprepared. The WHO's reported 200,000 heat-related deaths in the EU over the past four years underscores the severe and ongoing threat to public health and stability.

evidence 370ee129c0f4…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
60.0
okUnstable

The region is experiencing a record-breaking heatwave with temperatures soaring to historic highs, disrupting transport and straining hospitals, indicating a significant level of instability. However, the presence of innovative energy solutions and investments in climate resilience suggests that the region is not on the brink of annihilation, warranting a score of 60, reflecting an unstable but not catastrophic situation.

evidence 370ee129c0f4…prompt p1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
55.0
okUnstable

A record-breaking heatwave across Europe is severely disrupting transportation networks and straining hospital capacity, exposing critical vulnerabilities in regional infrastructure. Compounding these environmental stressors, Germany's ongoing economic stagnation raises concerns about the continent's broader financial resilience amidst escalating climate impacts.

evidence 370ee129c0f4…prompt p1
claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
42.0
okElevated

Europe faces a record-breaking heatwave in June 2026 with significant infrastructure strain, health impacts (200,000 heat-related deaths cited over four years), and economic concerns, but the evidence shows adaptation efforts underway and no immediate geopolitical conflict or state collapse. The crisis is primarily environmental and economic rather than indicating political instability or security threats that would warrant higher chaos scores at this moment in time.

evidence 370ee129c0f4…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
32.0
okElevated

The dominant stressor is a record-breaking, climate-attributed heatwave that is disrupting transport, straining hospitals and exposing chronic adaptation failures, with WHO citing 200,000 heat deaths across the EU over four years. Governance and security remain intact and markets are responding with investment interest, but the compounding pressure of German economic stagnation and 'climate inflation' concerns pushes conditions above baseline calm.

evidence 370ee129c0f4…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.