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Evidence inspector

Middle East & North Africa · 2026-06-27

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Region
Asia-PacificEuropeMiddle East & North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaNorth America
Depth profile
shallow
Date
2026-07-122026-07-112026-07-102026-07-092026-07-082026-07-072026-07-062026-07-052026-07-042026-07-032026-07-022026-07-012026-06-302026-06-292026-06-282026-06-272026-06-262026-06-25
Evidence hash
f484b1837be52342856cba5d7234a0f7a419ed3caa4bbd377b049908d47b85ae

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about Middle East & North Africa on 2026-06-27 was in the prompt.

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 15.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
35.0
okElevated

The US-Iran MoU implementation difficulties introduce geopolitical uncertainty, but no active conflict or crisis is reported in the region. Positive economic developments in startups and aviation indicate underlying stability.

evidence f484b1837be5…prompt p1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
35.0
okElevated

Economic and cultural indicators across the MENA region show positive momentum, highlighted by strong startup funding and green energy investments in North Africa. However, regional security remains somewhat precarious as the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding faces implementation difficulties despite remaining in force.

evidence f484b1837be5…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
30.0
okElevated

The evidence points to a de-escalatory baseline, with the U.S.–Iran Memorandum of Understanding still in force and headlines dominated by startup funding, aviation growth and energy cooperation rather than active conflict. Residual risk comes from acknowledged difficulties in implementing the Iran agreement and unsettled recognition politics in the Horn of Africa, keeping the region above a fully calm reading.

evidence f484b1837be5…prompt p1
claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
25.0
okStable

The evidence presents no significant geopolitical instability in MENA, with headlines focused on climate impacts in Europe, a U.S.-Iran agreement remaining in force despite implementation challenges, and positive economic activity including startup funding and aviation growth. While the U.S.-Iran MoU implementation difficulties and Israel-Somaliland strategic discussions suggest ongoing diplomatic complexities, these do not indicate acute conflict or destabilization in the region on this date.

evidence f484b1837be5…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
20.0
okElevated

The region is experiencing a sense of normalcy with business and sports activities proceeding as usual, as evidenced by the funding and acquisition momentum in startups and the passion for football commentary. However, the challenges in implementing the US-Iran Agreement and the broader geopolitical context contribute to a slightly elevated chaos score, reflecting underlying tensions and uncertainties in the region.

evidence f484b1837be5…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.