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Evidence inspector

Sub-Saharan Africa · 2026-06-27

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Region
Asia-PacificEuropeMiddle East & North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaNorth America
Depth profile
shallow
Date
2026-07-122026-07-112026-07-102026-07-092026-07-082026-07-072026-07-062026-07-052026-07-042026-07-032026-07-022026-07-012026-06-302026-06-292026-06-282026-06-272026-06-262026-06-25
Evidence hash
0f4481173b061f8e539852434387931ee5fdb86907846dddbfcf13cf59804aa9

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about Sub-Saharan Africa on 2026-06-27 was in the prompt.

04

Which Country Is the Giant of Africa?

Which country is the giant of Africa? Nigeria leads with 220M+ people, oil wealth, and a peacekeeping legacy unmatched on the continent.

guardian.ng

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 13.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
28.0
okStable

Sub-Saharan Africa shows mixed but predominantly positive signals with business summits, airline expansion, startup acceleration, and infrastructure investment indicating economic activity and regional engagement. While Nigeria faces competitiveness challenges and geopolitical factors like OPEC dynamics create some uncertainty, the evidence reflects institutional development, international partnerships, and entrepreneurial momentum rather than acute instability or conflict indicators.

evidence 0f4481173b06…prompt p1
deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
25.0
okElevated

The headlines indicate a mix of economic challenges such as Nigeria's low competitiveness ranking and geopolitical discussions around oil prices, but no immediate crisis or violent conflict. Positive developments like investments in mini-grids and startup support suggest underlying stability, yielding a moderately elevated score.

evidence 0f4481173b06…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
24.0
okElevated

The day's evidence is dominated by business, investment, aviation and development stories — Amazon accelerator picks, IFC mini-grid financing, Airbus route analysis and a leadership summit — with no reports of conflict, unrest, coups or humanitarian emergency. Mild structural stressors appear (Nigeria's third straight year among the least competitive economies, oil price volatility and AI-driven job risk), which keep the score above a fully calm baseline without indicating acute instability.

evidence 0f4481173b06…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
20.0
okElevated

The region is experiencing a mix of positive economic developments, such as growth in the energy and tech sectors, and challenges, including Nigeria's low competitiveness ranking and potential job risks from AI. Overall, the evidence suggests a sense of cautious optimism, with opportunities for growth and development, but also areas of concern that need to be addressed.

evidence 0f4481173b06…prompt p1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
15.0
okStable

The region exhibits high stability, with headlines dominated by positive economic developments, international tech investments, and diplomatic engagements. While Nigeria faces ongoing structural economic competitiveness challenges, the absence of acute political crises or violence indicates a calm geopolitical environment.

evidence 0f4481173b06…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.