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Evidence inspector

Europe · 2026-06-28

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Region
Asia-PacificEuropeMiddle East & North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaNorth America
Depth profile
shallow
Date
2026-07-122026-07-112026-07-102026-07-092026-07-082026-07-072026-07-062026-07-052026-07-042026-07-032026-07-022026-07-012026-06-302026-06-292026-06-282026-06-272026-06-262026-06-25
Evidence hash
39619e7060ea11f601166fb3d596cadf2657a5a9db8d851ede29029c3ee6f3d2

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about Europe on 2026-06-28 was in the prompt.

05

Europe’s Heat Politics

Europe's populist parties know how to make the most of a crisis. When I was in Germany covering the far right, they jumped on the European debt crisis.

nytimes.com

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 34.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
75.0
okSevere

A record-breaking heatwave has caused at least 1,300 deaths, widespread power outages, nuclear capacity cuts, and soaring energy prices across Europe, indicating severe infrastructure and public health strain. While no armed conflict or state breakdown is reported, the combination of climate-driven casualties, economic fallout, and political tensions elevates the region to a severe chaos level.

evidence 39619e7060ea…prompt p1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
68.0
okSevere

A record-breaking heatwave across Europe has resulted in over 1,300 fatalities and severe infrastructure strain, including power grid outages and nuclear capacity cuts. The compounding effects of these extreme temperatures are creating significant economic risks and providing new avenues for political exploitation by populist factions.

evidence 39619e7060ea…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
60.0
okUnstable

The region is experiencing a severe heatwave that has resulted in over 1,300 deaths, power grid outages, and economic losses, indicating a significant level of instability. However, the presence of diplomatic efforts, such as Germany's energy partnership with Algeria, and discussions on adapting to climate change suggest that the region is not on the brink of collapse, thus preventing a higher chaos score.

evidence 39619e7060ea…prompt p1
claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
42.0
okElevated

Europe faces significant near-term challenges from an intense heatwave causing deaths, power grid strain, and economic disruption, alongside infrastructure bottlenecks in the clean energy transition. However, the evidence shows active policy responses (hydrogen partnerships, renewable investments) and no indicators of political instability, military conflict, or systemic collapse, keeping the situation in the elevated rather than unstable range despite serious climate adaptation pressures.

evidence 39619e7060ea…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
41.0
okElevated

A record-breaking heatwave has produced roughly 1,300 excess deaths, grid outages, French nuclear capacity cuts, and soaring power prices, straining infrastructure and posing a downside risk to growth. However, institutions remain functional with no evidence of violence, conflict, or governance breakdown, and the disruptions are seasonal and adaptive rather than systemic, though populist exploitation of the crisis adds political friction.

evidence 39619e7060ea…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.