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Evidence inspector

Europe · 2026-06-29

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Region
Asia-PacificEuropeMiddle East & North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaNorth America
Depth profile
shallow
Date
2026-07-122026-07-112026-07-102026-07-092026-07-082026-07-072026-07-062026-07-052026-07-042026-07-032026-07-022026-07-012026-06-302026-06-292026-06-282026-06-272026-06-262026-06-25
Evidence hash
6cdd36f76f28739adfd7651c8b88ad8e809fb53948eeeefacb987d528210125e

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about Europe on 2026-06-29 was in the prompt.

06

Carbon Taxes in Europe, 2026

24 European countries have implemented carbon taxes. Explore the latest 2026 data comparing carbon taxes in Europe (across the EU).

taxfoundation.org

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 26.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
60.0
okUnstable

The region faces compounded stresses from a deadly heatwave with recorded fatalities, energy price volatility, and geopolitical tensions over Chinese dominance in critical sectors, indicating significant instability. However, cooperative measures such as the EU-Gulf initiative and cyber-energy resilience partnerships suggest some mitigating capacity, preventing a severe or critical rating.

evidence 6cdd36f76f28…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
60.0
okUnstable

The region is experiencing a severe heatwave, which has been linked to the fossil fuel-driven climate crisis, resulting in additional deaths and highlighting the need for urgent action to address climate change. The energy sector is also facing challenges, including price volatility and dependence on vulnerable oil supplies, which further contributes to the instability of the region.

evidence 6cdd36f76f28…prompt p1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
52.0
okUnstable

A severe, deadly heatwave has caused significant casualties and disruption across Europe, compounding existing vulnerabilities in the region's uncoordinated energy transition. Furthermore, rising energy prices and growing economic anxieties over Chinese dominance in the green tech sector are straining the bloc's industrial stability.

evidence 6cdd36f76f28…prompt p1
claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
42.0
okElevated

Europe faces multiple concurrent pressures including energy market volatility from supply instability, a severe heatwave causing documented deaths, and structural vulnerabilities in energy transition coordination and technological dependence on China. However, the evidence shows active policy responses (carbon taxes, resilience initiatives, implementation dialogues) and no acute military, political, or systemic collapse indicators that would warrant higher severity ratings. The challenges are serious but manageable within existing institutional frameworks, placing the region in an elevated but not unstable state of geopolitical stress.

evidence 6cdd36f76f28…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
34.0
okElevated

The evidence shows compounding but non-violent stressors: a record heatwave linked to roughly 1,000 excess deaths in France, renewed energy price volatility exposing structural import dependence, and trade friction over Chinese dominance in solar and clean tech. Institutions remain functional and engaged in routine policy work (carbon capture dialogues, cyber-energy resilience MoUs, Gulf diplomacy after the US-Iran deal), so the disruption is economic and public-health in nature rather than a breakdown of order.

evidence 6cdd36f76f28…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.