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Evidence inspector

Middle East & North Africa · 2026-06-29

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Region
Asia-PacificEuropeMiddle East & North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaNorth America
Depth profile
shallow
Date
2026-07-122026-07-112026-07-102026-07-092026-07-082026-07-072026-07-062026-07-052026-07-042026-07-032026-07-022026-07-012026-06-302026-06-292026-06-282026-06-272026-06-262026-06-25
Evidence hash
9c410c541b56d77e59aeeed064cba75c0fb4ebb5d87b6c4ff97b9d2ff962d45e

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about Middle East & North Africa on 2026-06-29 was in the prompt.

05

2026 Third-Quarter Forecast

A fragile truce in the Middle East, persistent energy-driven inflation, shifting U.S. trade policy and escalating regional pressures from Europe to Africa...

worldview.stratfor.com
06

Tourism Watch: June 2026

International tourism remains resilient but increasingly uneven, with geopolitical tensions, rising costs, and air connectivity disruptions shaping travel...

worldbank.org

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 40.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
60.0
okUnstable

A recent US-Iran agreement and a fragile regional truce have de-escalated a major Middle Eastern crisis, though lingering geopolitical tensions continue to disrupt air and maritime traffic. Despite these ongoing logistical challenges, significant foreign investments in renewables and strong corporate profits indicate a gradual stabilization of the regional economy.

evidence 9c410c541b56…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
55.0
okUnstable

Evidence points to a recently concluded major Middle East war and US-Iran crisis now held by an explicitly "fragile truce," with lingering Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption, energy-driven inflation, and struggling regional carriers and tourism connectivity. Offsetting this, no active hostilities are reported and multiple items show diplomatic follow-up (Europe-Gulf initiative) and robust investment and telecom activity, indicating de-escalation from a higher peak rather than ongoing collapse.

evidence 9c410c541b56…prompt p1
deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
45.0
okUnstable

The region exhibits a fragile truce and persistent geopolitical tensions, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz and energy-driven inflation, indicating ongoing instability. However, economic investments, policy initiatives, and positive business developments suggest the situation is not severe, warranting a moderate chaos score.

evidence 9c410c541b56…prompt p1
claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
42.0
okElevated

The evidence indicates a region navigating multiple stressors including a described 'fragile truce,' energy-driven inflation, geopolitical tensions affecting tourism and air connectivity, and ongoing Strait of Hormuz concerns, though economic activity in renewables and telecommunications remains resilient. While serious challenges persist, the absence of reports of active major conflicts, humanitarian crises, or systemic state collapse suggests instability rather than severe breakdown, warranting an elevated but not critical assessment given the shallow evidence depth available.

evidence 9c410c541b56…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
20.0
okElevated

The region is experiencing a mix of positive developments, such as discussions on expanding renewables and a strong start to the year for some telecom operators, but also faces challenges like geopolitical tensions, rising costs, and air connectivity disruptions. Overall, the situation is somewhat unstable, but there is no indication of severe or critical chaos, warranting an elevated score.

evidence 9c410c541b56…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.