●ChaosWatch
New here? Start here →
Evidence inspector

Sub-Saharan Africa · 2026-06-29

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Region
Asia-PacificEuropeMiddle East & North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaNorth America
Depth profile
shallow
Date
2026-07-122026-07-112026-07-102026-07-092026-07-082026-07-072026-07-062026-07-052026-07-042026-07-032026-07-022026-07-012026-06-302026-06-292026-06-282026-06-272026-06-262026-06-25
Evidence hash
a76dbb88311728c69713a20fb3f00b5d605fe638156d1fe4ce5bee2e7a7b8c8a

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about Sub-Saharan Africa on 2026-06-29 was in the prompt.

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 16.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
40.0
okElevated

Sub-Saharan Africa faces chronic environmental and infrastructure challenges, highlighted by severe climate shocks, mining-induced deforestation, and a massive electricity access gap. However, regional stability is bolstered by significant foreign and domestic investments in both renewable energy and traditional oil sectors alongside positive market-oriented reforms.

evidence a76dbb883117…prompt p1
claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
35.0
okElevated

Sub-Saharan Africa faces mounting climate pressures with increasing frequency of floods, droughts, and heatwaves, while simultaneously grappling with a severe electricity access gap affecting millions despite renewable energy investments. However, positive developments including $110 billion in continental energy investment, IFC funding for renewable expansion, and market-oriented reforms in South Africa indicate active mitigation efforts that partially offset the underlying vulnerabilities and environmental stressors present in the region during this period.

evidence a76dbb883117…prompt p1
deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
35.0
okElevated

Evidence highlights chronic challenges like climate shocks and an electricity access gap, but also shows significant investment and development momentum. No acute crisis or destabilizing events are reported, warranting a moderate elevated score.

evidence a76dbb883117…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
30.0
okElevated

The region is experiencing challenges related to climate change, energy access, and environmental degradation, which are contributing to an elevated chaos score. However, investments in renewable energy and efforts to expand electricity access are underway, indicating a level of stability and potential for improvement.

evidence a76dbb883117…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
24.0
okStable

The day's evidence is dominated by energy investment, renewable expansion and climate finance stories — IFC funding, Sierra Leone oil licensing, and IEA's $110bn continental investment projection — with no reports of conflict, unrest, coups or humanitarian emergency. Residual chaos reflects structural stressors flagged in the coverage: intensifying climate disasters, mining-driven deforestation, and sub-Saharan Africa holding 86% of the global electricity access gap.

evidence a76dbb883117…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.