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Evidence inspector

North America · 2026-06-29

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Region
Asia-PacificEuropeMiddle East & North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaNorth America
Depth profile
shallow
Date
2026-07-122026-07-112026-07-102026-07-092026-07-082026-07-072026-07-062026-07-052026-07-042026-07-032026-07-022026-07-012026-06-302026-06-292026-06-282026-06-272026-06-262026-06-25
Evidence hash
004bda71b85f8e61be08150c360452af5836779aa004e8751fe4fe0712ac9b11

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about North America on 2026-06-29 was in the prompt.

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 13.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
18.0
okStable

The evidence reflects routine commercial and trade activities across North America, including renewable energy investments, corporate mergers, and policy reviews that are normal components of regional economic functioning. No indicators of political instability, security threats, or systemic disruption are present in the headlines provided, suggesting the US region maintains baseline geopolitical stability on this date.

evidence 004bda71b85f…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
10.0
okStable

The evidence consists almost entirely of routine corporate and energy-sector business news — M&A deals, executive appointments, and market reports — with no indication of violence, unrest, or institutional breakdown. The only mild friction signal is the upcoming USMCA joint review described as high-stakes for Mexico, plus a cancelled offshore wind lease tied to a policy settlement, which suggests minor trade and regulatory uncertainty.

evidence 004bda71b85f…prompt p1
deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
10.0
okStable

The headlines reflect routine corporate transactions, energy market developments, and trade agreement reviews, with no indications of political unrest, violence, or institutional breakdown. The overall environment appears calm and economically active. Hence, a low chaos score is warranted.

evidence 004bda71b85f…prompt p1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
10.0
okStable

The provided evidence indicates a highly stable environment dominated by routine corporate mergers, executive appointments, and standard energy sector developments. There are no signs of political unrest, economic distress, or social upheaval, reflecting normal and peaceful business operations across the region.

evidence 004bda71b85f…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
5.0
okStable

The region exhibits stability due to the prevalence of business deals, partnerships, and advancements in renewable energy, indicating a strong and active economy. The absence of conflict, unrest, or significant disruptions in the headlines further supports the notion of a stable environment.

evidence 004bda71b85f…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.