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Evidence inspector

Europe · 2026-06-30

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Evidence hash
497a2887791aa611893335b45e7d07e760accd857009b9b83e87d099ce72e298

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about Europe on 2026-06-30 was in the prompt.

03

Geopolitical Europe Needs Air-Conditioning

Western Europe's dual-use infrastructure melted down during its latest heat wave. If a predicted hot weather event can take the continent by surprise,...

carnegieendowment.org

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 21.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
50.0
okUnstable

A severe heatwave is disrupting energy systems and infrastructure across Europe, while delayed climate action plans and mounting trade tensions with China add economic and governance pressures. These converging stresses, though not yet critical, indicate a fragile situation with potential for further instability.

evidence 497a2887791a…prompt p1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
45.0
okElevated

A severe heatwave is straining Europe's power grid and dual-use infrastructure, driving up electricity prices and exposing critical capacity shortages. While trade tensions with China and delayed climate plans add bureaucratic and economic friction, ongoing international energy partnerships maintain baseline regional stability.

evidence 497a2887791a…prompt p1
claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
42.0
okElevated

Europe faces mounting infrastructure vulnerabilities from climate stress (heat waves straining power grids, delayed cooling adaptation) and trade tensions with China, but these are being met with coordinated policy responses including energy partnerships with Canada and infrastructure investment initiatives. The evidence shows systemic challenges requiring urgent attention rather than immediate crisis, with institutional mechanisms still functioning to address emerging risks through dialogue and planning rather than conflict or breakdown scenarios.

evidence 497a2887791a…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
40.0
okElevated

The EU region is experiencing elevated chaos due to climate-related stressors, such as heatwaves, and geopolitical tensions, including trade imbalances with China. However, the region is also taking steps to address these challenges, including investing in renewable energy and adapting transport infrastructure, which prevents the situation from escalating to a higher level of chaos.

evidence 497a2887791a…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
29.0
okElevated

Evidence centers on climate stress (heatwave straining grids and transport infrastructure), trade friction with China, and delayed EU climate-plan filings — pressures on infrastructure and industry rather than violence or political rupture. Offsetting stabilizers include active EU-Canada energy cooperation and the Three Seas investment agenda, keeping the region functional but visibly strained.

evidence 497a2887791a…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.