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Evidence inspector

Middle East & North Africa · 2026-06-30

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Region
Asia-PacificEuropeMiddle East & North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaNorth America
Depth profile
shallow
Date
2026-07-122026-07-112026-07-102026-07-092026-07-082026-07-072026-07-062026-07-052026-07-042026-07-032026-07-022026-07-012026-06-302026-06-292026-06-282026-06-272026-06-262026-06-25
Evidence hash
f5562abd7f51cc3fcc7f8388bb111fb62f650ed5de8c4cedbc8b4c67f12b3cb4

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about Middle East & North Africa on 2026-06-30 was in the prompt.

02

Palestine*

The EU has been providing humanitarian assistance to Palestinians in need since 2000, supporting vulnerable families affected by emergencies and shocks.

civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 22.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
42.0
okElevated

The evidence presents a mixed picture with constructive development initiatives (food security, economic reforms, humanitarian assistance) alongside persistent structural challenges (discriminatory family laws, geopolitical tensions, Western Sahara conflict silence). The resumption of Tehran-Dubai flights and Algeria's financial progress suggest some regional stabilization, but unresolved conflicts and systemic inequalities prevent a lower assessment despite the absence of acute crisis indicators in this shallow evidence set.

evidence f5562abd7f51…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
38.0
okElevated

The day's evidence is dominated by development, food-security, and governance items (IMF/World Bank growth models, FAO training, family law reform) rather than active violence, and the resumption of direct Tehran–Dubai flights signals de-escalation after a recent conflict. Persistent structural stressors remain in the background — ongoing humanitarian need in Palestine, post-conflict recovery, and the unresolved Western Sahara dispute ahead of Algeria's 2 July elections — keeping the region above baseline calm.

evidence f5562abd7f51…prompt p1
deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
35.0
okElevated

The region shows signs of diplomatic and economic stabilization, such as the first direct Tehran-Dubai flight since conflict and World Bank investment initiatives. However, ongoing humanitarian needs, discriminatory family laws, and unresolved political tensions like Western Sahara keep the chaos level moderately elevated.

evidence f5562abd7f51…prompt p1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
35.0
okElevated

The region exhibits signs of post-conflict stabilization and economic development, highlighted by the resumption of Tehran-Dubai flights and Algeria's removal from the FATF grey list. However, underlying structural challenges remain evident through ongoing humanitarian needs in Palestine and calls for systemic legal and economic reforms across the region.

evidence f5562abd7f51…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
20.0
okElevated

The region is experiencing various challenges, including climate colonialism, discriminatory family laws, and food insecurity, but there are also positive developments such as financial reforms in Algeria, increased investment in the agriculture sector, and restored connectivity between Iran and Dubai. Overall, the situation is complex and warrants attention, but it does not indicate a high level of chaos or instability at this time.

evidence f5562abd7f51…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.