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Evidence inspector

North America · 2026-06-30

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Evidence hash
8b8665340a81e0b8cf166e80f0bd3037c183227f32d5575201583df3daf8fe44

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about North America on 2026-06-30 was in the prompt.

05

Agricultural Trade

The leading U.S. agricultural exports are grains and feeds, soybeans, livestock products, tree nuts, fruits, vegetables, and other horticultural products.

ers.usda.gov

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 12.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
32.0
okElevated

The evidence shows the US facing significant infrastructure and energy transition challenges, including climate adaptation needs, substantial investment requirements ($1+ trillion for energy infrastructure), and policy inconsistencies (halting renewable projects while investing in renewables elsewhere). However, these represent manageable structural issues rather than acute instability, with economic growth remaining stable near 2% and no indicators of immediate political, security, or social breakdown.

evidence 8b8665340a81…prompt p1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
32.0
okElevated

Despite a global energy shock stemming from the Strait of Hormuz, the United States remains economically insulated with steady growth and robust infrastructure investments. However, rising domestic gas prices and a dangerous heat dome affecting the eastern states introduce moderate environmental and public health pressures.

evidence 8b8665340a81…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
25.0
okElevated

Evidence is dominated by infrastructure investment, energy policy shifts, trade negotiations, and a heat wave — routine economic and climate stresses rather than acute instability, with S&P projecting steady ~2% US growth insulated from the Hormuz energy shock. Mild elevation reflects external energy market turbulence, USMCA renewal uncertainty, a dangerous heat dome, and abrupt reversals in energy policy including paid cancellation of offshore wind projects and rising coal reliance.

evidence 8b8665340a81…prompt p1
deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
20.0
okStable

The evidence shows routine infrastructure and trade discussions, with no immediate crisis indicators. Climate-related concerns like heat domes and emissions are present but do not suggest systemic instability.

evidence 8b8665340a81…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
20.0
okElevated

The region is experiencing climate-related challenges, such as heat domes and increased carbon emissions, which pose health and environmental risks. However, significant investments in energy infrastructure and renewable energy, as well as ongoing trade and economic activities, suggest a level of stability and resilience in the region.

evidence 8b8665340a81…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.