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Evidence inspector

Europe · 2026-07-01

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Region
Asia-PacificEuropeMiddle East & North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaNorth America
Depth profile
shallow
Date
2026-07-122026-07-112026-07-102026-07-092026-07-082026-07-072026-07-062026-07-052026-07-042026-07-032026-07-022026-07-012026-06-302026-06-292026-06-282026-06-272026-06-262026-06-25
Evidence hash
0d8dbc8a1c64c5bca90aa0d9499a83f6e30ea0a58caf0f520498130d243c4b50

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about Europe on 2026-07-01 was in the prompt.

03

Air pollution

Most European city dwellers are exposed to unsafe levels of air pollution . Improving air quality to match World Health Organization (WHO)-recommended...

eea.europa.eu

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 31.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
55.0
okUnstable

Europe faces mounting climate-related pressures, including deadly heatwaves, unsafe air pollution, and growing uninsurable assets, which heighten social and economic instability. However, significant investments in renewable gas, grid expansion, and battery storage indicate active mitigation efforts, preventing a more severe outcome.

evidence 0d8dbc8a1c64…prompt p1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
40.0
okElevated

Europe is experiencing elevated environmental and economic stress due to a severe heatwave that is exacerbating inequality and rendering some assets uninsurable. However, regional stability remains intact as institutions continue to function normally, evidenced by ongoing investments in renewable energy infrastructure and proactive policy debates.

evidence 0d8dbc8a1c64…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
40.0
okElevated

The region is experiencing extreme heat, air pollution, and climate change, which are exposing inequality and causing significant concerns, but there are also efforts to address these issues through investments in renewable energy and grid infrastructure. The chaos score is elevated due to the severity of these environmental challenges, but it is not higher because the region's institutions and organizations are actively working to mitigate these problems.

evidence 0d8dbc8a1c64…prompt p1
claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
28.0
okStable

The evidence reflects Europe facing significant environmental and infrastructure challenges—extreme heat, air pollution, and climate-related insurance risks—but these are being addressed through policy frameworks, renewable energy investments, and industrial adaptation rather than acute geopolitical conflict or systemic collapse. The headlines indicate proactive governance responses (EU carbon policies, grid modernization, biomethane expansion) and research initiatives on emerging risks like AI safety, suggesting institutional resilience despite mounting climate pressures and inequality concerns that warrant monitoring but do not constitute immediate instability indicators at the regional level on this date.

evidence 0d8dbc8a1c64…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
24.0
okElevated

The day's evidence is dominated by policy, energy infrastructure and market reporting with no indication of conflict, unrest, or institutional breakdown in Europe. Chronic stressors — a record-breaking June heatwave, heat- and pollution-related mortality estimates, rising uninsurability of assets, and industry friction over the EU carbon overhaul — push the score modestly above baseline calm.

evidence 0d8dbc8a1c64…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.