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Evidence inspector

Middle East & North Africa · 2026-07-01

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Region
Asia-PacificEuropeMiddle East & North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaNorth America
Depth profile
shallow
Date
2026-07-122026-07-112026-07-102026-07-092026-07-082026-07-072026-07-062026-07-052026-07-042026-07-032026-07-022026-07-012026-06-302026-06-292026-06-282026-06-272026-06-262026-06-25
Evidence hash
13d691313fced4a38308a96df71dd5eceb6c6dd1773c413f69fd5fa810bca9a1

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about Middle East & North Africa on 2026-07-01 was in the prompt.

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 35.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
75.0
okSevere

While economic reconstruction and great power cooperation offer some stabilizing effects, the region faces severe volatility driven by the economic toll of an ongoing war in Iran and mounting crises in the Red Sea and Sudan. These compounding conflicts threaten broader maritime and regional security, overshadowing positive developments in infrastructure and energy investments.

evidence 13d691313fce…prompt p1
deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
65.0
okSevere

The headlines indicate renewed escalation in Sudan, instability in the Sahel, and a brewing crisis in the Red Sea/Horn of Africa, alongside ongoing concerns from the war in Iran. While economic and diplomatic developments continue, the prevalence of armed conflict and regional tensions supports a severe instability score.

evidence 13d691313fce…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
64.0
okSevere

Evidence references an ongoing war involving Iran with economic spillover around the Strait of Hormuz, renewed escalation in Sudan, Sahel instability, and brewing tensions in the Red Sea/Horn corridor, indicating multiple simultaneous active conflict theaters. Offsetting this, several items point to normal economic and institutional activity — construction growth, Syrian energy reconstruction, cybersecurity investment, and great-power hedging rather than confrontation — suggesting the instability is severe but geographically concentrated rather than region-wide collapse.

evidence 13d691313fce…prompt p1
claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
42.0
okElevated

The MENA region exhibits multiple concurrent stressors including renewed escalation in Sudan, mounting tensions in the Horn of Africa, and ongoing instability across the Sahel, alongside structural challenges like discriminatory family laws and water security vulnerabilities. However, evidence of great power cooperation, regional economic development initiatives, and reconstruction efforts in Syria suggest stabilizing counterforces that prevent the situation from reaching critical instability levels despite the fragmented security landscape.

evidence 13d691313fce…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
40.0
okElevated

The region is experiencing a mix of cooperative and competitive interactions between global powers, with the US and China converging on some interests, while also dealing with regional instability and tensions, such as in Sudan and the Horn of Africa. However, the presence of constructive developments, including regional partnerships, green energy ambitions, and economic growth, prevents the situation from escalating into a more severe crisis.

evidence 13d691313fce…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.