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Evidence inspector

Sub-Saharan Africa · 2026-07-01

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Evidence hash
4435854e7d0352e629a706df877d188018a27f66cc9f3864964e22ee3d4e5b1c

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about Sub-Saharan Africa on 2026-07-01 was in the prompt.

10

Enemies of Energy: 350.org

350.org is a 501(c)(3) tax exempt nonprofit that was founded in 2008 by anti-energy extremist Bill McKibben, then a professor at Middlebury College in...

capitalresearch.org

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 37.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

claude-opus-5
anthropic
57.0
okUnstable

The bulk of the evidence is development-oriented — solar investment, ICT growth, SDG reviews and inclusive-prosperity research — indicating functioning economic and institutional activity across much of the region. However, a UN warning of atrocity risk and drone strikes on besieged El Obeid endangering roughly half a million civilians in Sudan, plus EU-IOM emergency programming for cyclone, flood and drought displacement in Southern Africa, points to acute localized conflict and climate-driven instability within the region.

evidence 4435854e7d03…prompt p1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
55.0
okUnstable

While much of Sub-Saharan Africa is experiencing positive economic growth and significant investments in renewable energy infrastructure, severe localized conflict in Sudan threatens regional stability. The active siege of El Obeid and ongoing climate-induced displacement in Southern Africa elevate the overall risk of humanitarian crises despite broader developmental progress.

evidence 4435854e7d03…prompt p1
deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
45.0
okUnstable

The region faces simultaneous pressures from armed conflict in Sudan causing civilian casualties and climate-induced displacement across Southern Africa, while systemic challenges in food systems persist. However, substantial investments in renewable energy, ICT, and inclusive development indicate resilience and ongoing progress, tempering the overall chaos level.

evidence 4435854e7d03…prompt p1
claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
28.0
okStable

The evidence predominantly reflects positive development initiatives across Sub-Saharan Africa, including renewable energy investments, sustainable agriculture innovations, and inclusive prosperity programs that suggest constructive regional momentum. While climate-related displacement and ongoing conflict in Sudan are noted, the overall narrative emphasizes institutional responses and economic growth rather than widespread instability or systemic breakdown across the region on this date.

evidence 4435854e7d03…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
20.0
okElevated

The region is experiencing efforts towards sustainable development, renewable energy, and addressing climate displacement, indicating a level of stability and cooperation. However, the presence of conflict in Sudan and the risk of atrocities, as well as the ongoing challenges of climate change and biodiversity loss, contribute to an elevated chaos score.

evidence 4435854e7d03…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.