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Evidence inspector

Middle East & North Africa · 2026-07-02

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Region
Asia-PacificEuropeMiddle East & North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaNorth America
Depth profile
shallow
Date
2026-07-122026-07-112026-07-102026-07-092026-07-082026-07-072026-07-062026-07-052026-07-042026-07-032026-07-022026-07-012026-06-302026-06-292026-06-282026-06-272026-06-262026-06-25
Evidence hash
b2c1d59f68dd7d92121837f9525454394d2e9d4fe9e1068fa2c9f0c78c379bba

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about Middle East & North Africa on 2026-07-02 was in the prompt.

01

Africans are turning to Starlink

Starlink's satellite internet service is expanding across Africa, offering faster connections but at higher costs than mobile broadband in 27 countries.

economist.com

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 33.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
91.0
okCritical

The MENA region is facing catastrophic humanitarian crises, with the fourth year of Sudan's war showing no abatement and documented crimes against humanity, while Gaza marks 1,000 days of conflict with over 21,000 children killed. These severe ongoing conflicts, combined with regional political shifts such as Algeria's elections, indicate extreme instability and a high level of chaos.

evidence b2c1d59f68dd…prompt p1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
85.0
okCritical

While Gulf nations like Saudi Arabia demonstrate technological advancement and economic stability, the broader MENA region is severely destabilized by protracted, devastating conflicts in Gaza and Sudan. Reports of ethnic cleansing by the RSF in Sudan and staggering civilian casualties after 1,000 days of war in Gaza highlight a critical humanitarian and geopolitical crisis.

evidence b2c1d59f68dd…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
79.0
okSevere

Two active mass-casualty wars dominate the evidence: Gaza's conflict at 1,000 days with at least 21,000 children reported killed, and Sudan's war entering a fourth year with Amnesty documenting RSF crimes against humanity and ethnic cleansing in El Fasher alongside mass displacement and collapsed services. Offsetting signals are limited and peripheral — routine Algerian legislative elections, Saudi digital-development rankings, and commercial energy deals — which indicate pockets of stability but do not mitigate ongoing atrocity-level violence.

evidence b2c1d59f68dd…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
70.0
okSevere

The region is experiencing significant instability due to ongoing conflicts, such as the war in Sudan and the situation in Gaza, which have resulted in thousands of child casualties and widespread human rights abuses. Additionally, reports of peace deal violations in eastern Congo and crimes against humanity in El Fasher, Sudan, further contribute to the high chaos score, indicating a severe level of instability in the region.

evidence b2c1d59f68dd…prompt p1
claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
58.0
okUnstable

The MENA region exhibits mixed signals with ongoing humanitarian crises in Sudan (fourth year of war, crimes against humanity allegations) and Gaza (21,000 children killed), offset by some stabilizing factors like Algeria's democratic electoral process and Saudi Arabia's digital infrastructure investments. However, the persistence of active conflicts, mass displacement, and documented war crimes create a baseline of significant instability that prevents a lower assessment despite the absence of acute escalation indicators in the immediate evidence provided.

evidence b2c1d59f68dd…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.