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Evidence inspector

Sub-Saharan Africa · 2026-07-02

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Region
Asia-PacificEuropeMiddle East & North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaNorth America
Depth profile
shallow
Date
2026-07-122026-07-112026-07-102026-07-092026-07-082026-07-072026-07-062026-07-052026-07-042026-07-032026-07-022026-07-012026-06-302026-06-292026-06-282026-06-272026-06-262026-06-25
Evidence hash
8b701aa673231950092fc805d57b9872e142910c8fb2557d7fa7a5d6648cb56e

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about Sub-Saharan Africa on 2026-07-02 was in the prompt.

05

Understanding Children’s Climate Risks

UNICEF's 2026 Children's Climate Risk Report reveals 1.1 billion children face at least three overlapping climate hazards, out of 2.4 billion exposed to one...

forbes.com
06

The Four Percent Trap

Africa's strongest card at the climate table is also the ledger of its poverty. The way out is not to play the card better, but to build past it.

panafricanreview.com

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 25.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
45.0
okUnstable

Evidence shows multiple African countries facing business environment downgrades and potential fertilizer-driven food crises, indicating economic strain. However, proactive regional initiatives on climate displacement and energy governance suggest some resilience, keeping the overall chaos at a moderate level.

evidence 8b701aa67323…prompt p1
claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
42.0
okElevated

Southern Africa faces mounting climate displacement pressures affecting 1.1 billion children regionally, while eighteen countries experienced business environment downgrades from Middle East geopolitical shocks, indicating economic fragility. However, constructive developments in energy governance (Nigeria's IEA membership), regional refining capacity (Angola), and international climate adaptation initiatives provide some stabilizing counterbalance to these destabilizing trends.

evidence 8b701aa67323…prompt p1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
40.0
okElevated

While Nigeria's integration into the IEA and Angola's refining reforms highlight positive strides in energy governance, the region faces notable economic headwinds. Widespread business environment downgrades and looming food security threats stemming from Middle Eastern conflicts elevate the overall risk profile.

evidence 8b701aa67323…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
36.0
okElevated

The day's evidence is dominated by governance, energy and development stories — Nigeria's IEA accession, Angolan refining reforms, and an EU-IOM climate displacement programme — with no reports of active conflict, coups or mass casualties. Elevated rather than stable because of concrete stress signals: eighteen business-environment downgrades concentrated in Africa from the Middle East shock, fertilizer-to-food-crisis risk, and large-scale climate hazard exposure among children.

evidence 8b701aa67323…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
20.0
okElevated

The region is experiencing various challenges, including climate displacement, business environment risk downgrades, and climate hazards affecting children, but there are also positive developments such as new initiatives to address these issues and investments in energy and refining infrastructure. Overall, the situation is elevated due to the presence of these challenges, but it is not severe as there are efforts underway to mitigate them.

evidence 8b701aa67323…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.