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Evidence inspector

Europe · 2026-07-03

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Evidence hash
ce9d1956f0b8b10a395c467d16c45a1cb948b2dccf93fb2658f8c2f1ecd1814c

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about Europe on 2026-07-03 was in the prompt.

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 22.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
42.0
okElevated

Europe faces mounting structural challenges including climate impacts (heatwaves, rapid warming), economic competitiveness gaps versus the US, energy transition complexities, and geopolitical pressures around tech sovereignty, but these are being addressed through policy initiatives rather than acute crises. The evidence shows systemic stress and policy debates rather than immediate instability or conflict, placing the region in an elevated but manageable stability range with significant long-term concerns requiring attention.

evidence ce9d1956f0b8…prompt p1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
30.0
okElevated

Europe faces moderate environmental and economic pressures, highlighted by a severe heatwave and concerns over lagging productivity compared to global competitors. However, proactive governance in green energy transitions, grid expansion, and strategic tech sovereignty initiatives keeps overall regional stability intact.

evidence ce9d1956f0b8…prompt p1
deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
25.0
okElevated

The evidence highlights ongoing climate and economic challenges, such as rapid warming and innovation gaps, but no acute political or social upheaval. Routine policy discussions on energy, trade, and tech sovereignty suggest manageable, non-critical conditions.

evidence ce9d1956f0b8…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
22.0
okElevated

The evidence is dominated by energy policy, grid investment, battery storage deals, and customs/tech-sovereignty debates, with no indication of violence, political breakdown, or acute crisis in the EU. The main stressors are a deadly heatwave, structural competitiveness and innovation lag, and friction with the US and China, which suggest mild elevation above baseline calm rather than instability.

evidence ce9d1956f0b8…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
20.0
okElevated

The region is experiencing challenges related to climate change, innovation, and economic growth, but there are also efforts underway to address these issues, such as the expansion of electricity grids and investments in green energy. Overall, the situation is concerning but not catastrophic, with a mix of positive and negative developments that warrant close monitoring.

evidence ce9d1956f0b8…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.