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Evidence inspector

Middle East & North Africa · 2026-07-03

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Region
Asia-PacificEuropeMiddle East & North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaNorth America
Depth profile
shallow
Date
2026-07-122026-07-112026-07-102026-07-092026-07-082026-07-072026-07-062026-07-052026-07-042026-07-032026-07-022026-07-012026-06-302026-06-292026-06-282026-06-272026-06-262026-06-25
Evidence hash
da1a4af07c16a3e5525dcc89812b1c740526b732b1cdfffbf7eb56aa94208300

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about Middle East & North Africa on 2026-07-03 was in the prompt.

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 10.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

claude-opus-5
anthropic
68.0
okSevere

Evidence points to an ongoing regional conflict with cross-border economic spillover — depressed global air travel, oil supply fears, rerouted shipping to Kenyan ports, and unresolved security arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman. Partial de-escalation is visible in the signed Israel-Lebanon framework agreement, but accountability disputes and continued references to active war keep the region well above baseline instability.

evidence da1a4af07c16…prompt p1
deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
65.0
okSevere

The ongoing Middle East conflict is disrupting global supply chains and air travel, with Jaguar Land Rover citing it for sales drops and IATA reporting a 2.2% decline in passenger demand. Diplomatic tensions over the Strait of Hormuz and the Israel-Lebanon framework agreement further indicate regional instability, though no single catastrophic event occurred on this day.

evidence da1a4af07c16…prompt p1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
60.0
okUnstable

Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and the Gulf are causing significant global economic disruptions, evidenced by falling air travel demand and diverted shipping routes. However, recent diplomatic developments, including an Israel-Lebanon framework agreement and maritime security talks between Oman and Iran, indicate active efforts to manage the regional volatility.

evidence da1a4af07c16…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
60.0
okUnstable

The region is experiencing instability due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which is affecting various sectors such as energy, automotive, and air travel. The conflict is also raising concerns about maritime security, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, and has led to a framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon that is controversial and may not address war crimes adequately.

evidence da1a4af07c16…prompt p1
claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
58.0
okUnstable

The MENA region exhibits multiple destabilizing factors including ongoing Middle East conflict affecting global supply chains and air travel, religious persecution concerns in Iran, and diplomatic tensions over Strait of Hormuz maritime security arrangements. However, evidence remains limited to economic disruptions and diplomatic negotiations rather than active military escalation, preventing a higher severity classification despite clear regional instability indicators present on this date.

evidence da1a4af07c16…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.