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Evidence inspector

North America · 2026-07-03

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Region
Asia-PacificEuropeMiddle East & North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaNorth America
Depth profile
shallow
Date
2026-07-122026-07-112026-07-102026-07-092026-07-082026-07-072026-07-062026-07-052026-07-042026-07-032026-07-022026-07-012026-06-302026-06-292026-06-282026-06-272026-06-262026-06-25
Evidence hash
4d674de337e83a233e93bab16fccf032f06e99297dcc2008ee86575ef62d52dd

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about North America on 2026-07-03 was in the prompt.

08

Sierra Nevada - Geography, People, Economy

Sierra Nevada - Geography, People, Economy: The American Indian inhabitants of the Sierra Nevada were divided into five main groups: the Yokut, Sierra Miwok...

britannica.com

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 15.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
35.0
okElevated

The U.S. faces significant weather-related disruptions from a widespread heat dome affecting the central and eastern regions and flooding in Minnesota and Iowa, which could stress infrastructure and public health during holiday events. However, positive economic developments such as renewable energy investments and new battery production indicate underlying stability, with political tensions with Canada notable but not escalating to immediate crisis.

evidence 4d674de337e8…prompt p1
claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
32.0
okElevated

The US faces near-term climate stressors including a dangerous heat dome affecting the Fourth of July weekend and localized flooding in the Midwest, creating public health and infrastructure challenges. However, economic fundamentals remain stable with significant renewable energy investments (KKR's $4.2B acquisition, LG-Honda battery production) and continued business confidence, suggesting resilience despite environmental pressures and some trade tensions with Canada mentioned in headlines.

evidence 4d674de337e8…prompt p1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
28.0
okElevated

While major corporate investments in renewable energy and battery production highlight strong economic fundamentals, extreme weather events like a widespread heat dome and localized flooding are causing moderate disruptions. Additionally, emerging trade tensions with Canada contribute to a slightly elevated risk profile, though overall regional stability remains largely intact.

evidence 4d674de337e8…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
24.0
okElevated

Evidence centers on weather hazards (a broad heat dome and localized Midwest flooding) and economic-diplomatic friction over Trump-era trade tensions with Canada, alongside routine business and energy investment news. There are no indications of violence, unrest, or institutional breakdown, so instability is modest and largely environmental and policy-driven.

evidence 4d674de337e8…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
20.0
okElevated

The region is experiencing a heat wave and flooding, which may cause disruptions to daily life and pose health risks to the population. However, the presence of positive economic developments, such as the start of mass production of energy-storage cells and a major renewable energy deal, suggests that the region is not on the brink of chaos, but rather facing manageable challenges.

evidence 4d674de337e8…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.