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Evidence inspector

Middle East & North Africa · 2026-07-04

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Region
Asia-PacificEuropeMiddle East & North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaNorth America
Depth profile
shallow
Date
2026-07-122026-07-112026-07-102026-07-092026-07-082026-07-072026-07-062026-07-052026-07-042026-07-032026-07-022026-07-012026-06-302026-06-292026-06-282026-06-272026-06-262026-06-25
Evidence hash
d54b0b569f5a93ad344a8134b6ddfa8381964bd11c1ac7c418456b76169897fd

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about Middle East & North Africa on 2026-07-04 was in the prompt.

10

After noise pollution comes light pollution

FOR some time, legal minds in the Philippines were in a bit of a quandary about noise pollution. Some argued that Republic Act (RA) 8749, or the 1999 Clean...

manilatimes.net

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 17.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
75.0
okSevere

Although a recent ceasefire has paused the devastating war between the US, Israel, and Iran, the Middle East continues to grapple with the conflict's severe ripple effects and a major regime transition in Tehran. Despite these profound security challenges, active Saudi diplomacy and resilient startup investments provide early indicators of stabilization amidst the broader regional volatility.

evidence d54b0b569f5a…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
70.0
okSevere

The evidence describes the aftermath of a US-Israeli war on Iran that killed Ayatollah Khamenei and left a new, untested regime in Tehran, alongside grave civilian-harm and accountability concerns and an ongoing Sudanese civil war. A signed ceasefire, Türkiye's role as a stable NATO host, and buoyant startup investment activity indicate partial de-escalation and pockets of normalcy, tempering the score below the critical range.

evidence d54b0b569f5a…prompt p1
deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
62.0
okSevere

The MENA region is embroiled in active conflict, including the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran and the Sudan civil war, with Khamenei's delayed funeral underscoring the fallout. However, ceasefire agreements, Saudi diplomatic initiatives, and Türkiye's stability as a safe haven temper the chaos, preventing a critical score.

evidence d54b0b569f5a…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
60.0
okUnstable

The region is experiencing ongoing conflict, as evidenced by the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran, which is having devastating effects on civilians. However, the presence of diplomatic efforts, such as Saudi Arabia's involvement in ending Sudan's civil war and Türkiye's role as a safe haven, suggests that some stability is being maintained, preventing a complete collapse into chaos.

evidence d54b0b569f5a…prompt p1
claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
58.0
okUnstable

The MENA region shows significant active conflict with a U.S.-Israel war against Iran, Ayatollah Khamenei's funeral indicating ongoing regime transition, and a Sudan civil war requiring diplomatic intervention, though a recent U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement suggests some de-escalation. Turkey's positioning as a regional stabilizer and Saudi Arabia's diplomatic engagement provide counterbalancing factors, but the combination of active warfare, leadership transitions, and humanitarian crises across multiple countries sustains elevated instability despite some positive developments in startup activity and diplomatic efforts.

evidence d54b0b569f5a…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.