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Evidence inspector

Sub-Saharan Africa · 2026-07-04

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Region
Asia-PacificEuropeMiddle East & North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaNorth America
Depth profile
shallow
Date
2026-07-122026-07-112026-07-102026-07-092026-07-082026-07-072026-07-062026-07-052026-07-042026-07-032026-07-022026-07-012026-06-302026-06-292026-06-282026-06-272026-06-262026-06-25
Evidence hash
4eae5e84e5a7a1d60398546fed9a5547b0140c19149c9f9b9db9316e787d9718

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about Sub-Saharan Africa on 2026-07-04 was in the prompt.

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 4.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

claude-opus-5
anthropic
22.0
okStable

The day's evidence is dominated by investment, energy transition, and agricultural development stories — including a $1.5bn EBRD commitment to Nigeria and renewable energy gains — with no reports of active conflict, violence, or political rupture. The only stress signal is the reference to Africa's large displaced population and their barriers to finance and land, which points to persistent structural strain rather than acute instability on this date.

evidence 4eae5e84e5a7…prompt p1
deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
20.0
okStable

The evidence highlights positive economic developments, including significant investment pledges, renewable energy growth, and entrepreneurial activity among displaced populations, with no reports of conflict or acute instability. While challenges like climate change and barriers to finance persist, the overall tone is constructive and forward-looking, suggesting a stable environment.

evidence 4eae5e84e5a7…prompt p1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
20.0
okStable

The provided evidence highlights significant economic momentum across Sub-Saharan Africa, driven by major foreign investments, renewable energy projects, and agricultural development. While the presence of displaced populations indicates underlying historical challenges, their positive economic integration and the influx of capital suggest a highly stable regional outlook.

evidence 4eae5e84e5a7…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
20.0
okStable

The region is experiencing significant investment and development in renewable energy and infrastructure, with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development targeting $1.5 billion in investments in Nigeria and Niger allocating land for a solar farm. These efforts suggest a focus on economic growth and sustainability, indicating a relatively stable environment.

evidence 4eae5e84e5a7…prompt p1
claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
18.0
okStable

The evidence presents a predominantly positive economic outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, with significant foreign investment commitments (EBRD's $1.5bn Nigeria initiative), renewable energy expansion reducing energy costs, and growing entrepreneurship among displaced populations. While climate action and economic transitions present ongoing challenges, the headlines reflect constructive policy momentum, sectoral diversification, and capital inflows that suggest relative stability rather than instability in the region during this period.

evidence 4eae5e84e5a7…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.