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Evidence inspector

Sub-Saharan Africa · 2026-07-05

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Evidence hash
2b9d4793f23b4645fe867ad1dba1635ec61c978ccb411880d61f62365f1efdb5

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 9

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about Sub-Saharan Africa on 2026-07-05 was in the prompt.

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 9 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 18.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
28.0
okStable

Sub-Saharan Africa's headlines reflect constructive developments including Nigeria's IEA membership, major hydropower investments in Morocco, and energy sector initiatives that support economic growth and regional cooperation. While Tanzania's digital tax reforms and Kenya's proposed cyber restrictions indicate governance tensions, the overall evidence shows institutional strengthening and infrastructure investment rather than acute instability or conflict escalation.

evidence 2b9d4793f23b…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
22.0
okStable

The day's evidence is dominated by economic, energy-cooperation, and regulatory developments — Nigeria's IEA accession, World Bank hydropower financing, and trade growth — with no reports of violence, conflict, or political rupture. Mild friction signals appear in Tanzania's coercive digital tax enforcement of the informal economy and Kenya's restrictive cyber legislation following a cited breach, which suggest governance and cyber-security strain rather than instability.

evidence 2b9d4793f23b…prompt p1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
20.0
okStable

The region exhibits strong signs of economic and diplomatic development, highlighted by Nigeria joining the International Energy Agency and major infrastructure investments. While an ongoing energy crisis persists, proactive governance reforms in Tanzania and Kenya alongside growing international trade indicate a stable geopolitical environment.

evidence 2b9d4793f23b…prompt p1
deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
15.0
okStable

The evidence highlights cooperative energy partnerships, economic development initiatives, and regulatory reforms across Sub-Saharan Africa, with no reported conflict or civil unrest. While some measures like Kenya's cyber laws and Tanzania's digital tax may introduce adjustment friction, they do not suggest elevated chaos or instability.

evidence 2b9d4793f23b…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
10.0
okStable

The region is experiencing cooperation and development in the energy sector, with countries like Nigeria joining the International Energy Agency and Morocco receiving funding for a hydropower project, indicating a stable and collaborative environment. Additionally, economic growth and digital reforms are being implemented, such as Tanzania's digital tax reforms and Kenya's efforts to improve national security, which further support the stability of the region.

evidence 2b9d4793f23b…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.