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Evidence inspector

North America · 2026-07-05

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Evidence hash
f397df8ae597e22438eeb7b69567cee756e956ebdae6f0581afbf4d9566f6259

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about North America on 2026-07-05 was in the prompt.

03

Food City names two new district managers

Food City recently announced the promotion of two store managers — Brad Holt and Eric Hozouri — to the role of district manager, where they will join the...

greenevillesun.com

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 25.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
45.0
okElevated

The US faces significant stress from a deadly heat dome causing 25 fatalities and extreme temperatures across 35 states, alongside renewed trade uncertainty from the USMCA rewrite and annual review with Canada. Energy market shocks from Russian fuel supplies add economic pressure, though positive corporate developments temper the overall chaos score.

evidence f397df8ae597…prompt p1
claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
32.0
okElevated

The US faces moderate pressures from trade policy uncertainty with USMCA renegotiations creating business concerns, compounded by a significant heat dome causing 25 deaths across 35+ states. However, economic activity remains resilient with major energy contracts, infrastructure investments, and corporate expansions proceeding normally, indicating systemic stability despite localized climate and policy challenges.

evidence f397df8ae597…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
25.0
okElevated

Most evidence is routine business and energy sector news, indicating functioning markets and no domestic security crisis. Elevated rather than stable due to a deadly heat dome causing 25 deaths across 35+ states, trade uncertainty from Trump's USMCA annual-review decision unsettling Canada, Mexico and Michigan industry, and energy price pressure from a Russian fuel supply shock.

evidence f397df8ae597…prompt p1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
25.0
okElevated

A severe heat dome across the United States has resulted in 25 fatalities, presenting a notable public health and environmental stressor. Meanwhile, renewed uncertainty surrounding the renegotiation of the North American trade agreement introduces moderate economic friction, though overall domestic stability remains intact.

evidence f397df8ae597…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
20.0
okElevated

The region is experiencing some instability due to a heat wave that caused 25 deaths across the US, and trade negotiations with the US, Canada, and Mexico are introducing uncertainty. However, the economy appears to be functioning with various business deals and partnerships being secured, such as Baker Hughes' subsea deal and Hexagon Agility's significant order, indicating a level of stability amidst the challenges.

evidence f397df8ae597…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.