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Evidence inspector

Europe · 2026-07-06

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Evidence hash
4bb0d5235b0281141d4661ad523c383968c86faa7684b82832ea88a8415599b1

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about Europe on 2026-07-06 was in the prompt.

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 15.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
35.0
okElevated

Europe faces emerging governance challenges around autonomous AI cyber operations and chemical industry oversight, alongside persistent cyberattacks on the EU and Ukraine, indicating institutional vulnerabilities in critical domains. However, these concerns are substantially offset by strong positive economic indicators including record renewable energy adoption, robust labor markets (particularly in Ireland), and coordinated climate research initiatives that demonstrate institutional capacity and forward momentum in key sectors. The evidence suggests manageable challenges within a fundamentally stable framework rather than systemic instability.

evidence 4bb0d5235b02…prompt p1
deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
35.0
okElevated

Europe faces persistent cyber threats and climate-related legal pressures, as highlighted by headlines on AI agent attacks and heatwave litigation, yet no immediate large-scale disruption is evident. Economic and energy developments remain positive overall, with solar growth and strong Irish economic figures, keeping the region stable but cautiously watchful.

evidence 4bb0d5235b02…prompt p1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
35.0
okElevated

Despite strong economic performance in member states like Ireland and record growth in renewable energy, Europe faces ongoing friction from relentless cyberattacks and AI governance gaps. Additionally, the severe impacts of deadly heatwaves and missed energy targets introduce moderate environmental and policy challenges, keeping the region's risk profile slightly elevated.

evidence 4bb0d5235b02…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
22.0
okStable

The day's evidence is dominated by routine policy, energy-transition and market stories—solar/EV growth, Irish economic strength, chemicals policy—indicating normal institutional functioning across the EU. The only stress signals are persistent cyberattacks requiring defensive buildup, an AI-governance gap, and deadly heatwaves now entering litigation, which add mild background pressure without destabilizing the region.

evidence 4bb0d5235b02…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
20.0
okElevated

The region is experiencing a surge in solar energy and e-vehicles, with record highs in 2025, and countries like Ireland are enjoying full employment, indicating a stable economy. However, the prevalence of autonomous AI agents in cyberspace and the EU's struggle to meet its target for energy communities introduce some instability, warranting an elevated chaos score.

evidence 4bb0d5235b02…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.