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Evidence inspector

Middle East & North Africa · 2026-07-06

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Region
Asia-PacificEuropeMiddle East & North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaNorth America
Depth profile
shallow
Date
2026-07-122026-07-112026-07-102026-07-092026-07-082026-07-072026-07-062026-07-052026-07-042026-07-032026-07-022026-07-012026-06-302026-06-292026-06-282026-06-272026-06-262026-06-25
Evidence hash
ff568fc24e144a577a8d6afb104fcd819a42be2f0e93f61cacd9fe2b25705eb4

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about Middle East & North Africa on 2026-07-06 was in the prompt.

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 30.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
72.0
okSevere

The escalating conflict in Sudan has resulted in at least 330 child casualties in six months, indicating a severe humanitarian crisis within the region. Concurrent risks from potential Strait of Hormuz disruptions, El Niño-driven inflation, and food insecurity further destabilize the MENA area.

evidence ff568fc24e14…prompt p1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
65.0
okSevere

While foreign investment in Egypt and new economic corridors indicate some regional resilience, ongoing shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz threaten broader economic stability. Furthermore, the escalating and deadly conflict in Sudan highlights severe localized humanitarian crises that elevate the region's overall risk profile.

evidence ff568fc24e14…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
60.0
okUnstable

The region is experiencing various challenges, including conflict in Sudan that has resulted in significant harm to children, and potential disruptions to global energy and food supplies due to El Niño and geopolitical risks. However, the presence of diplomatic efforts, such as China's space diplomacy and initiatives like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, suggests that there are also attempts to stabilize and cooperate within the region.

evidence ff568fc24e14…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
58.0
okUnstable

Evidence documents an active, escalating war in Sudan with at least 330 children killed or injured in six months, alongside references to Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions, fuel shortages, drought-driven crop shortfalls and food safety burdens across the Near East and North Africa. Offsetting this, much of the coverage is analytical or investment-oriented — a $360 million energy acquisition in Egypt, corridor diplomacy, and space cooperation — indicating persistent regional instability and armed conflict rather than region-wide breakdown.

evidence ff568fc24e14…prompt p1
claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
42.0
okElevated

The MENA region shows mixed signals with concerning humanitarian crises in Sudan (330 children killed/injured in first half of 2026) and climate-driven food security threats from El Niño-related droughts, offset by constructive economic initiatives like IMEC and energy investments in Egypt that suggest ongoing regional engagement. While localized conflicts and environmental pressures create instability, the absence of major interstate conflicts, continued international investment, and diplomatic corridor development indicate the region remains elevated but not severely destabilized at this moment in July 2026.

evidence ff568fc24e14…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.