●ChaosWatch
New here? Start here →
Evidence inspector

Sub-Saharan Africa · 2026-07-06

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Region
Asia-PacificEuropeMiddle East & North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaNorth America
Depth profile
shallow
Date
2026-07-122026-07-112026-07-102026-07-092026-07-082026-07-072026-07-062026-07-052026-07-042026-07-032026-07-022026-07-012026-06-302026-06-292026-06-282026-06-272026-06-262026-06-25
Evidence hash
d9f8c254a0c21059d54d1bc58c49b10b569216cdc12b2a948d30ef95a7d47082

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about Sub-Saharan Africa on 2026-07-06 was in the prompt.

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 28.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
48.0
okUnstable

Economists and asset managers warn that sub-Saharan Africa's economic crunch will likely persist through 2026, while the 2026 El Niño event threatens to further strain global and regional stability. However, substantial green investments and development projects, such as the $650 million solar mini-grid expansion and EU-backed funding, indicate ongoing resilience and moderate progress.

evidence d9f8c254a0c2…prompt p1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
40.0
okElevated

Sub-Saharan Africa faces a prolonged economic crunch and inflationary pressures exacerbated by the 2026 El Niño event and global shipping disruptions. However, significant foreign investments in green energy infrastructure and technology help mitigate these macroeconomic headwinds and support long-term development.

evidence d9f8c254a0c2…prompt p1
claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
35.0
okElevated

Sub-Saharan Africa shows mixed signals with significant positive investment momentum in renewable energy and technology sectors ($650M WeLight expansion, $70M EFSD+ program, $1M Google gaming fund) alongside acknowledged economic headwinds extending through 2026 and climate concerns from El Niño. The region faces real economic constraints and environmental pressures, but substantial international capital inflows and infrastructure development initiatives provide stabilizing counterbalance to near-term challenges.

evidence d9f8c254a0c2…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
34.0
okElevated

The day's evidence is dominated by constructive investment news — EBRD/EU green financing, a $650 million solar mini-grid expansion into Nigeria and DRC, and smaller digital and creative-sector funds — with no reports of conflict, unrest, or governance breakdown. Elevated rather than stable because economists warn sub-Saharan Africa's economic crunch will persist through end-2026, and compounding El Niño and Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions threaten inflation and food security across the region.

evidence d9f8c254a0c2…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
20.0
okElevated

The region is experiencing economic challenges, with economists warning of a prolonged crunch, but there are also significant investments and initiatives aimed at promoting green energy, digital growth, and sustainable development. While these efforts suggest a degree of stability and potential for growth, the economic warnings and potential impacts of the 2026 El Nino climate event contribute to an elevated chaos score.

evidence d9f8c254a0c2…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.