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Evidence inspector

North America · 2026-07-06

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Region
Asia-PacificEuropeMiddle East & North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaNorth America
Depth profile
shallow
Date
2026-07-122026-07-112026-07-102026-07-092026-07-082026-07-072026-07-062026-07-052026-07-042026-07-032026-07-022026-07-012026-06-302026-06-292026-06-282026-06-272026-06-262026-06-25
Evidence hash
01eebb86e355ea0308cef01446c48172ad8ee0489f7022e92197d72d86a1beeb

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about North America on 2026-07-06 was in the prompt.

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 18.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
42.0
okElevated

The United States faces mounting environmental and economic pressures including record heat waves, a severe El Niño event, and continued reliance on fossil fuels despite renewable energy expansion, creating infrastructure and climate adaptation challenges. However, domestic energy sector restructuring, technological innovation in batteries and grid modernization, and the absence of acute political or security crises indicate the situation remains manageable within existing institutional frameworks rather than approaching instability or crisis levels.

evidence 01eebb86e355…prompt p1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
40.0
okElevated

A massive heat dome and an intensifying Super El Niño are placing significant environmental and economic strain on the United States, threatening to drive inflation and disrupt supply chains. However, ongoing corporate restructuring and infrastructure investments in the energy and transportation sectors provide underlying economic resilience, keeping overall instability at a moderate level.

evidence 01eebb86e355…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
40.0
okElevated

The region is experiencing elevated chaos due to the compounding effects of the El Nino climate event, record heat waves, and strain on the global economy and security. However, the presence of innovative solutions and partnerships, such as Schneider Electric's SF₆ reduction technology and Maersk's dedicated lithium-ion battery freight service, suggests that the region is actively working to address these challenges.

evidence 01eebb86e355…prompt p1
deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
35.0
okElevated

The US faces significant environmental and economic pressures from a record-breaking El Niño and heat waves, which strain infrastructure and energy systems. However, there is no evidence of political instability or civil unrest, so chaos remains limited to these sector-specific challenges.

evidence 01eebb86e355…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
24.0
okElevated

Evidence is dominated by energy-sector business news and climate coverage rather than political violence, unrest, or institutional breakdown, indicating a fundamentally stable domestic picture. Mild elevation is warranted by the record heat dome and Super El Niño straining infrastructure, plus externally driven inflation risk from Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption.

evidence 01eebb86e355…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.