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Evidence inspector

Europe · 2026-07-07

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Region
Asia-PacificEuropeMiddle East & North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaNorth America
Depth profile
shallow
Date
2026-07-122026-07-112026-07-102026-07-092026-07-082026-07-072026-07-062026-07-052026-07-042026-07-032026-07-022026-07-012026-06-302026-06-292026-06-282026-06-272026-06-262026-06-25
Evidence hash
ba6a5ec271a935745cdcf7482244ab170ec3cecc7e3b48b1272c86aba1fee0cf

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about Europe on 2026-07-07 was in the prompt.

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 31.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
60.0
okUnstable

The region is experiencing significant challenges, including economic instability, climate-driven extreme weather events such as record heat and wildfires, and tensions related to energy and climate policies. However, the presence of plans and initiatives to address these issues, such as the EU's plan for advanced AI in cybersecurity and efforts towards climate neutrality, suggests that the situation, while serious, is being actively addressed.

evidence ba6a5ec271a9…prompt p1
deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
55.0
okUnstable

Europe faces compounding economic and climate pressures, with sluggish growth, record heat-driven wildfires forcing evacuations, and transatlantic disputes over environmental regulations. These stresses are partially offset by ongoing policy initiatives, but the cumulative strain supports an elevated but not yet critical instability score.

evidence ba6a5ec271a9…prompt p1
claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
42.0
okElevated

Europe faces multiple concurrent stressors including economic weakness, record wildfires and heat waves forcing evacuations, climate-driven ecological disruption, and regulatory tensions with the US over climate and energy policy. However, the evidence shows institutional responses (EU AI cybersecurity plans, climate neutrality acceleration) and no acute geopolitical conflicts or immediate systemic collapse, keeping the situation in the elevated rather than unstable range despite significant underlying vulnerabilities and environmental pressures.

evidence ba6a5ec271a9…prompt p1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
40.0
okElevated

Europe is experiencing heightened environmental and economic stress, highlighted by sluggish economic growth and severe heatwaves that have sparked wildfires and forced thousands to evacuate. However, regional stability remains intact as institutions continue to proactively manage regulatory frameworks, cybersecurity, and diplomatic relations.

evidence ba6a5ec271a9…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
29.0
okElevated

The evidence points to a stressed but functioning region: record heat and wildfires forcing thousands to evacuate, sluggish eurozone growth near 1%, weak investor interest, and friction with US industry and the Trump administration over climate rules. There is no indication of armed conflict, governmental breakdown, or systemic crisis, so the disruption appears environmental and economic rather than existential.

evidence ba6a5ec271a9…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.