●ChaosWatch
New here? Start here →
Evidence inspector

Middle East & North Africa · 2026-07-07

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Region
Asia-PacificEuropeMiddle East & North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaNorth America
Depth profile
shallow
Date
2026-07-122026-07-112026-07-102026-07-092026-07-082026-07-072026-07-062026-07-052026-07-042026-07-032026-07-022026-07-012026-06-302026-06-292026-06-282026-06-272026-06-262026-06-25
Evidence hash
172631b6aaf1a244a59e56981e0669572a65e6f13a2fa7c9e17a0c864c64e97d

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about Middle East & North Africa on 2026-07-07 was in the prompt.

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 25.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

claude-opus-5
anthropic
45.0
okElevated

The bulk of the day's evidence is economic and developmental — solar irrigation, Egyptian growth revisions and renewables financing, Gulf property and tourism gains — indicating functioning markets and continued investor engagement rather than acute crisis. However, references to a ceasefire following a war involving Iran, the US and Israel, alongside 'pre-war' framing of Dubai deals, point to an unresolved post-conflict environment with latent escalation risk that keeps the region above baseline calm.

evidence 172631b6aaf1…prompt p1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
40.0
okElevated

Although the region is navigating the aftermath of a major conflict involving Iran, a current ceasefire has allowed for a resumption of diplomatic and economic normalcy. Strong indicators of regional stability, such as booming tourism in Morocco, infrastructure investments in Egypt, and surging property sales in Dubai, reflect a resilient economic environment despite recent geopolitical shocks.

evidence 172631b6aaf1…prompt p1
deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
35.0
okElevated

The headline about Iran's war with the US and Israel and the subsequent ceasefire suggests lingering regional tensions and security uncertainties, while the IMF's cut to Egypt's growth forecast points to economic strain. However, positive developments like solar investments, Dubai luxury property sales, and strong tourism in Morocco indicate resilience, keeping the overall chaos score moderate.

evidence 172631b6aaf1…prompt p1
claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
32.0
okElevated

The evidence shows mixed signals with positive economic indicators (renewable energy expansion, FDI attraction, tourism growth, luxury property sales) and infrastructure development offsetting concerns about Iran's geopolitical tensions and Egypt's downward growth revision. While the mention of Iran's ceasefire and US-Israel dynamics suggests ongoing regional security challenges, the shallow evidence depth and predominance of economic and development stories indicate no immediate critical instability, though underlying tensions warrant monitoring beyond the current snapshot data available.

evidence 172631b6aaf1…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
20.0
okElevated

The region is experiencing a mix of positive economic developments, such as growing foreign direct investment and a thriving creator economy, alongside concerns like reduced economic growth forecasts for countries like Egypt. However, the overall tone of the headlines suggests a sense of cautious optimism and resilience in the face of global challenges, rather than outright instability or chaos.

evidence 172631b6aaf1…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.