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Evidence inspector

Sub-Saharan Africa · 2026-07-07

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Evidence hash
12e75358468570c2250a746acfd910779e67d6e013ecedc81bbc6ca7026bd06e

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about Sub-Saharan Africa on 2026-07-07 was in the prompt.

10

Turkish Airlines increases flights to SA

Global carrier Turkish Airlines has announced that it will increase its flights to South Africa in October. This will see both the Istanbul-Johannesburg and...

news24.com

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 22.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
52.0
okElevated

Sub-Saharan Africa shows modest progress in renewable energy investment and conservation efforts, but faces significant climate-related risks and persistent poverty. The overall situation is not critical, yet multiple stressors warrant an elevated stability concern.

evidence 12e753584685…prompt p1
claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
42.0
okElevated

Sub-Saharan Africa faces mounting environmental pressures including extreme heat risks, torrential rains causing infrastructure damage, and climate-related challenges that threaten productivity and development goals. However, positive counterbalancing factors include significant renewable energy investments, international cooperation frameworks like Nigeria's IEA membership, and growing solar capacity additions that suggest adaptive capacity and economic opportunity despite underlying stressors.

evidence 12e753584685…prompt p1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
40.0
okElevated

While Sub-Saharan Africa faces ongoing challenges from extreme heat, torrential flooding, and persistent poverty, the region is also experiencing significant positive momentum in renewable energy development. The absence of acute geopolitical crises in the reporting, combined with major solar infrastructure investments and growing global connectivity, keeps overall instability at a manageable level.

evidence 12e753584685…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
40.0
okElevated

The region is experiencing various challenges including torrential rains, extreme heat, and poverty, which are hampering progress towards sustainable development goals. However, there are also positive developments such as increased investment in solar energy, conservation efforts for leopards, and cooperation on energy security, which suggest that the region is not in a state of complete chaos.

evidence 12e753584685…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
30.0
okElevated

The evidence is dominated by energy investment, aviation expansion and conservation research, indicating no acute crisis or active conflict escalation in the region on this date. However, background stressors are clearly flagged orn from torrential rains, extreme heat risk concentrated in sub-Saharan cities, and a report citing conflict, climate and financing gaps sustaining poverty, which keeps the baseline above calm.

evidence 12e753584685…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.