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Evidence inspector

Asia-Pacific · 2026-07-08

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Region
Asia-PacificEuropeMiddle East & North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaNorth America
Depth profile
shallow
Date
2026-07-122026-07-112026-07-102026-07-092026-07-082026-07-072026-07-062026-07-052026-07-042026-07-032026-07-022026-07-012026-06-302026-06-292026-06-282026-06-272026-06-262026-06-25
Evidence hash
e1a6896d11b9631977c361afb32ea1866c4983a23dd6c04e6fda0e0361643451

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about Asia-Pacific on 2026-07-08 was in the prompt.

10

Offshore wind auction on hold

The Philippines' Department of Energy has put on hold the auction for offshore wind projects under fifth green energy auction programme, GEA5.

pfie.com

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 15.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
35.0
okElevated

The Asia-Pacific region displays economic resilience and positive growth forecasts, yet energy supply vulnerabilities and geopolitical tensions such as the US-China chip war introduce moderate uncertainty. Climate disasters and armed conflict in humanitarian contexts further elevate but do not destabilize the overall regional equilibrium.

evidence e1a6896d11b9…prompt p1
claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
32.0
okElevated

The Asia-Pacific region shows mixed signals with resilient economic activity and strategic cooperation on energy infrastructure, but underlying vulnerabilities are evident including climate disasters, armed conflict impacts, energy supply risks, and geopolitical tensions around AI chip competition between major powers. The growing demand for political risk insurance and regulatory uncertainties suggest stakeholders perceive meaningful instability despite surface-level economic resilience in dealmaking and growth forecasts above 4.9%.

evidence e1a6896d11b9…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
28.0
okElevated

The evidence is dominated by economic and energy-sector reporting — resilient M&A activity, an upgraded ADB growth forecast of 4.9%, and trilateral US-Japan-Korea nuclear cooperation — indicating no acute crisis in the region on this date. Elevated rather than stable because of persistent structural frictions: US-China AI chip export pressures forcing Southeast Asian alignment choices, tariff and regulatory uncertainty, energy supply vulnerabilities, rising political risk insurance demand, and UNFPA references to intensifying climate disasters and armed conflict.

evidence e1a6896d11b9…prompt p1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
28.0
okElevated

Despite underlying geopolitical frictions from the US-China tech war and rising demand for political risk insurance, the Asia-Pacific region demonstrates strong economic resilience with upgraded growth forecasts and active diplomatic cooperation. Trilateral energy agreements and robust dealmaking indicate a generally stable environment, though energy supply vulnerabilities and compliance dilemmas warrant ongoing monitoring.

evidence e1a6896d11b9…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
20.0
okElevated

The region is experiencing a mix of positive economic trends, such as resilient dealmaking and growth forecasts, alongside potential risks like energy supply vulnerabilities and geopolitical tensions, including the US-China AI chip war. Overall, while there are areas of concern, the evidence suggests a generally stable environment with some elevated risks, warranting a moderate chaos score.

evidence e1a6896d11b9…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.