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Evidence inspector

Europe · 2026-07-08

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Region
Asia-PacificEuropeMiddle East & North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaNorth America
Depth profile
shallow
Date
2026-07-122026-07-112026-07-102026-07-092026-07-082026-07-072026-07-062026-07-052026-07-042026-07-032026-07-022026-07-012026-06-302026-06-292026-06-282026-06-272026-06-262026-06-25
Evidence hash
59fce0a278d38a6e20b2396031a2cd79820a00dcf1a8598ee12499211b5afb52

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about Europe on 2026-07-08 was in the prompt.

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 19.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
45.0
okUnstable

The EU faces escalating climate-related pressures, including record heat waves and associated grid and water risks, which introduce significant stress. However, member states are actively cooperating on economic competitiveness, cybersecurity, and environmental measures, indicating a managed response rather than a systemic collapse.

evidence 59fce0a278d3…prompt p1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
45.0
okElevated

Europe is experiencing significant infrastructure and environmental strain due to unprecedented heat waves that are threatening water supplies and energy grids. However, proactive policy measures regarding cybersecurity, economic competitiveness, and climate regulation indicate that governance remains highly functional despite these mounting pressures.

evidence 59fce0a278d3…prompt p1
claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
42.0
okElevated

Europe faces mounting environmental and climate pressures with record heat waves, doubled cooling energy consumption, and grid/water strain, alongside competitive economic concerns relative to the U.S. However, the region is actively responding through policy coordination, emissions regulations, AI sovereignty initiatives, and renewable energy solutions, indicating institutional capacity to manage challenges. The evidence suggests stress and adaptation rather than systemic instability or imminent crisis at this time.

evidence 59fce0a278d3…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
40.0
okElevated

The region is experiencing its third major heat wave, which is straining water supplies, fueling wildfire danger, and posing grid risks, indicating a heightened level of instability. However, European leaders are finding common ground on ways to sharpen the region's competitive edge and unveiling plans to address emissions and cybersecurity, suggesting that the situation, while challenging, is being actively addressed.

evidence 59fce0a278d3…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
26.0
okElevated

The evidence shows no armed conflict, unrest, or institutional breakdown in the EU, with most items concerning routine policy-making on emissions, cybersecurity, and competitiveness. Elevated rather than fully stable because a record-breaking third heat wave is straining electricity grids, water supplies, and raising wildfire danger, alongside noted economic underperformance and fossil fuel price volatility.

evidence 59fce0a278d3…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.