●ChaosWatch
New here? Start here →
Evidence inspector

Middle East & North Africa · 2026-07-08

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Region
Asia-PacificEuropeMiddle East & North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaNorth America
Depth profile
shallow
Date
2026-07-122026-07-112026-07-102026-07-092026-07-082026-07-072026-07-062026-07-052026-07-042026-07-032026-07-022026-07-012026-06-302026-06-292026-06-282026-06-272026-06-262026-06-25
Evidence hash
1f7ce5f0dea7c4a499c2293ab15e0b7f1098b8ef08b87048fc65f169d2441407

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about Middle East & North Africa on 2026-07-08 was in the prompt.

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 24.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
82.0
okCritical

Evidence indicates an active Iran conflict and tanker war disrupting Middle East shipping, causing economic contraction and declining liveability in Gulf cities. The scale of hostilities and regional impact, despite some adaptive logistics measures, supports a critical instability level.

evidence 1f7ce5f0dea7…prompt p1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
82.0
okSevere

An ongoing Iran conflict and an active tanker war are severely disrupting regional stability and driving an economic contraction across the Middle East. Despite these major hostilities, some resilience remains as Saudi Arabia adapts its logistics networks and Egypt continues to attract significant foreign direct investment.

evidence 1f7ce5f0dea7…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
70.0
okSevere

Evidence points to an active Iran-centered conflict with a 'tanker war' disrupting Gulf shipping, forcing alternative logistics routes and depressing regional liveability and stability rankings, while the IMF projects an outright MENA economic contraction — its second-worst annual performance — with recovery deferred to 2027. Mitigating signals are real but secondary: travel bookings are rebounding, Egypt and Morocco continue to attract investment, and firms are adapting supply chains, indicating severe but not collapsing regional conditions.

evidence 1f7ce5f0dea7…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
60.0
okUnstable

The region is experiencing geopolitical disruptions, with the Iran conflict weighing on Gulf cities and the IMF forecasting a contraction in the Middle Eastern economy this year. However, there are also signs of resilience and adaptation, such as Morocco's OCP Group diversifying its suppliers and investing in domestic green ammonia, which suggests that the situation is not yet catastrophic.

evidence 1f7ce5f0dea7…prompt p1
claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
58.0
okUnstable

The MENA region faces significant economic headwinds with IMF forecasting contraction and a 'tanker war' disrupting logistics, while geopolitical tensions—particularly Iran conflict impacts on Gulf stability—are explicitly lowering liveability indices and deterring some travel commitments. However, evidence of ongoing investment (Egypt's FDI leadership, OCP diversification, business expansion) and selective tourism recovery suggest the region has not collapsed into severe crisis, maintaining a precarious middle ground between dysfunction and catastrophe.

evidence 1f7ce5f0dea7…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.