01
Delivering energy access: leaving no one in the dark
8 July 2026 - Despite notable progress over the past decade, millions of people still live without electricity. With 2030 fast approaching, we spoke with UN...
un.org
Evidence inspector
Sub-Saharan Africa · 2026-07-08
The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.
It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.
Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check
Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.
Source material · 10
shallowThese headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about Sub-Saharan Africa on 2026-07-08 was in the prompt.
02
The region most heavily dependent on foreign aid faces tough trade-offs
Sub-Saharan Africa is not monolithic, with stable economies sitting alongside fragile and conflict-affected states. But collectively, the region shares a...
devex.com
03
2026 Energy Progress Report Finds Renewables Supply Over 30% of Electricity
The SDG 7 (affordable and clean energy) custodian agencies have launched their annual progress report summarizing global progress on access to electricity,...
sdg.iisd.org
04
Rainfall, temperature, vegetation key drivers of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa: Study
A multi-country study across 20 sub-Saharan African nations finds rainfall, temperature and vegetation greenness are key but nonlinear, delayed drivers of...
downtoearth.org.in
05
Abu Dhabi oil giant snaps up Shell’s South African business in $1billion Africa expansion
ADNOC Distribution will acquire Shell's South African downstream business for $1 billion, giving the Abu Dhabi energy group control of 580 service stations...
africa.businessinsider.com
06
IMF’s July 2026 World Economic Outlook
The International Monetary Fund has released its latest World Economic Outlook. In the July 2026 update; global growth is forecast at 3 per cent,...
cnbcafrica.com
07
New book co-edited by UFH scholar positions African perspectives at the forefront of climate justice debate
As governments around the world grapple with the transition to cleaner energy, a new book co-edited by the University of Fort Hare's (UFH) Director of the...
ufh.ac.za
08
Nigeria exploration well hits 1000-foot hydrocarbon column
A major new hydrocarbon discovery has been made in the shallow waters of Nigeria by a joint venture of Renaissance Africa Energy and state-owned NNPC.
upstreamonline.com
09
East Africa’s clean cooking crisis deepens as one billion Africans risk dirty fuels – SDG7
Kenya has emerged as one of Africa's strongest performers in expanding electricity access, but a new global energy.
peopledaily.digital
10
IMF sees Nigeria’s economy grow by 4.1%, worries about rising food prices, poverty
*Economy to grow to 4.3% next year. *Crude may sell $89 per barrel for most part of 2026. THE combined impact of the Middle East conflict,...
guardian.ng
Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.
The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.
Model rationales
prompt p1Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 10.0 points of the 0-100 scale.
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
40.0
okElevated
The region is experiencing a mix of positive and negative developments, with progress in energy access and economic growth, but also concerns about poverty, food prices, and the impact of climate change. While there are no immediate signs of catastrophic instability, the various challenges and uncertainties facing the region contribute to an elevated chaos score.
claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
35.0
okElevated
Sub-Saharan Africa shows mixed stability indicators with positive developments in renewable energy adoption (30%+ of electricity), economic growth forecasts (Nigeria at 4.1%), and foreign investment (ADNOC's $1 billion Shell acquisition), but faces persistent structural challenges including energy poverty affecting millions, heavy aid dependency, and climate-driven health risks like malaria. The region demonstrates resilience and progress rather than acute crisis, though underlying vulnerabilities in food security, poverty, and energy access create moderate instability concerns that warrant elevated rather than stable classification.
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
35.0
okElevated
The region exhibits steady economic activity and infrastructure development, highlighted by major foreign investments and projected economic growth in Nigeria. However, chronic vulnerabilities such as rising food prices, poverty, and heavy reliance on foreign aid keep the baseline risk elevated.
claude-opus-5
anthropic
32.0
okElevated
The day's evidence is dominated by development, energy-access, and macroeconomic reporting rather than active violence, with positive signals including Nigerian oil discovery, a $1bn ADNOC investment, and 3% global growth forecasts. Chronic stressors keep this above calm, however: heavy aid dependence amid tough fiscal trade-offs, acknowledged fragile and conflict-affected states, rising Nigerian food prices and poverty, and persistent energy and health (malaria, dirty cooking fuel) burdens.
deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
30.0
okElevated
The region exhibits ongoing developmental challenges such as energy access gaps, foreign aid dependency, and clean cooking crises, but these are chronic conditions rather than acute destabilizing events. Positive developments including Nigeria's oil discovery and regional economic growth forecasts temper the overall chaos score.
Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.