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Evidence inspector

North America · 2026-07-08

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Region
Asia-PacificEuropeMiddle East & North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaNorth America
Depth profile
shallow
Date
2026-07-122026-07-112026-07-102026-07-092026-07-082026-07-072026-07-062026-07-052026-07-042026-07-032026-07-022026-07-012026-06-302026-06-292026-06-282026-06-272026-06-262026-06-25
Evidence hash
fe556d8159337f75ecc149963f831286cd865b050098306e04ee21b09c06f45e

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about North America on 2026-07-08 was in the prompt.

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 15.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
25.0
okStable

The evidence reflects normal economic and policy activity with no indicators of acute instability or conflict. Headlines show routine business developments in energy infrastructure, climate adaptation, and international diplomatic coordination on denuclearization, alongside some supply chain concerns about Chinese financial influence that represent manageable strategic challenges rather than immediate crises. The U.S. demonstrates institutional continuity through coordinated foreign policy and sustained private sector investment in critical infrastructure and clean energy transitions.

evidence fe556d815933…prompt p1
deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
18.0
okStable

The headlines describe routine business, energy, and environmental developments, with no immediate signs of conflict, political crisis, or widespread disruption. The only mild concerns are climate change vulnerability in wildlife and uncertainty in green energy investments, but these do not indicate imminent instability.

evidence fe556d815933…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
16.0
okStable

The evidence is dominated by routine business, energy infrastructure, and climate research news, with no indication of violence, unrest, or institutional breakdown in the US. Mild elevation reflects background concerns over cyber threats, green energy investment uncertainty, and Chinese influence in critical mineral supply chains, none of which represent acute instability.

evidence fe556d815933…prompt p1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
15.0
okStable

The evidence indicates a stable domestic environment characterized by steady investments in green energy infrastructure and routine diplomatic cooperation with Asian allies. While concerns exist regarding Chinese financial influence in critical mineral supply chains and North Korean cyber threats, these represent long-term strategic challenges rather than immediate destabilizing crises.

evidence fe556d815933…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
10.0
okStable

The region is experiencing advancements in clean energy, technology, and international cooperation, as evidenced by the introduction of new energy storage systems and reaffirmed commitments to denuclearization. Despite some concerns about climate change and potential threats, the overall tone of the headlines suggests a sense of progress and stability in the region.

evidence fe556d815933…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.