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Evidence inspector

Asia-Pacific · 2026-07-09

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Region
Asia-PacificEuropeMiddle East & North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaNorth America
Depth profile
shallow
Date
2026-07-122026-07-112026-07-102026-07-092026-07-082026-07-072026-07-062026-07-052026-07-042026-07-032026-07-022026-07-012026-06-302026-06-292026-06-282026-06-272026-06-262026-06-25
Evidence hash
1f7037b9e5f102b8fce5a6c6207622d1180c7cd18d582885f8851130be2e28ba

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about Asia-Pacific on 2026-07-09 was in the prompt.

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 10.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
40.0
okElevated

Regional stability faces moderate headwinds from a slight economic growth downgrade tied to energy disruptions and ongoing strategic realignments like the Australia-Fiji defense pact. However, cooling international tensions and steady financial markets prevent acute instability, keeping the overall risk environment manageable despite long-term climate vulnerabilities.

evidence 1f7037b9e5f1…prompt p1
deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
38.0
okElevated

Economic growth forecasts have been trimmed due to energy disruptions and climate-related social stresses like child marriages are rising, indicating mounting pressure across the region. However, no major armed conflict or catastrophic event is reported, and ongoing diplomatic and energy cooperation suggests the situation remains manageable.

evidence 1f7037b9e5f1…prompt p1
claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
32.0
okElevated

The Asia-Pacific region faces multiple concurrent pressures including downward economic growth revisions (4.9% from 5.1%), energy disruptions, climate-driven social stress (child marriages), and emerging infectious disease risks, indicating systemic vulnerabilities. However, these challenges are being met with constructive responses such as renewable energy investments, strategic security partnerships, and uranium trade agreements, suggesting institutional capacity to manage current pressures without imminent systemic collapse.

evidence 1f7037b9e5f1…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
32.0
okElevated

Evidence points to economic drag from energy disruptions (ADB cutting growth to 4.9%), climate-driven social harms including rising child marriage, and intensifying strategic competition via the Australia-Fiji defense pact and uranium diplomacy. However, markets are steady with Iran-US tensions cooling and no active armed conflict or acute crisis in the region is reported, keeping instability moderate rather than severe.

evidence 1f7037b9e5f1…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
30.0
okElevated

The region is experiencing energy disruptions and climate change-related issues, such as increased child marriages and potential outbreaks of infectious diseases, which contribute to the elevated chaos score. However, the presence of cooperation and investment in the region, including deals on uranium exports and renewable energy projects, suggests that the situation is not yet severe.

evidence 1f7037b9e5f1…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.