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Evidence inspector

Europe · 2026-07-09

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Region
Asia-PacificEuropeMiddle East & North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaNorth America
Depth profile
shallow
Date
2026-07-122026-07-112026-07-102026-07-092026-07-082026-07-072026-07-062026-07-052026-07-042026-07-032026-07-022026-07-012026-06-302026-06-292026-06-282026-06-272026-06-262026-06-25
Evidence hash
258178d252d3cdee084126d949e8c7b983b789ed1e2886ca6ef6cbb50dbba69f

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about Europe on 2026-07-09 was in the prompt.

01

Renewable energy

Renewable energy · Renewable energy sources made up 24.5% of the EU's final energy consumption in 2023. · In 2022, the 27 EU Member States recorded greenhouse...

google.com
02

Western Europe has hottest June on record

June 2026 was the hottest June recorded for western Europe and the second warmest globally, driven by the highest sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on record...

google.com

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 18.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
40.0
okElevated

The EU faces significant climate-related stress, with record heatwaves and infrastructure adaptation needs, but no immediate political or security breakdown is indicated. Cyber threats from AI are being addressed through policy action, suggesting managed risk rather than imminent chaos.

evidence 258178d252d3…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
40.0
okElevated

The chaos score is elevated due to the record-breaking heatwave in Western Europe, which is a significant climate-related event that poses risks to infrastructure and human health. However, the EU's proactive measures to address climate change, such as the electrification target and the Action Plan on Cybersecurity and Artificial Intelligence, suggest that the region is taking steps to mitigate and adapt to these challenges.

evidence 258178d252d3…prompt p1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
35.0
okElevated

Record-breaking heatwaves across Western Europe are testing the region's climate resilience and infrastructure, prompting urgent adaptation measures. However, proactive EU policy initiatives regarding AI cybersecurity and economic electrification indicate strong institutional stability and forward planning, keeping overall geopolitical risks moderate.

evidence 258178d252d3…prompt p1
claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
32.0
okElevated

Western Europe is experiencing record-breaking heat in June 2026 with significant climate adaptation challenges, including infrastructure vulnerabilities and persistent heatwave risks that require urgent mitigation efforts. However, the EU is actively responding through renewable energy expansion (24.5% of consumption), electrification initiatives targeting €200bn in savings, and cybersecurity/AI safeguards, indicating institutional capacity to manage these environmental pressures without immediate systemic collapse or conflict escalation evident in the available evidence.

evidence 258178d252d3…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
22.0
okElevated

The evidence describes climate stress — a record-hot June in Western Europe with heatwaves straining infrastructure — alongside policy responses on adaptation, electrification, and AI-driven cyber risk, indicating pressure rather than breakdown. There is no sign of conflict, political crisis, or governance failure, and institutions appear to be functioning proactively, so overall stability remains high with a modest elevation from environmental and cyber threat exposure.

evidence 258178d252d3…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.