●ChaosWatch
New here? Start here →
Evidence inspector

Middle East & North Africa · 2026-07-09

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Region
Asia-PacificEuropeMiddle East & North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaNorth America
Depth profile
shallow
Date
2026-07-122026-07-112026-07-102026-07-092026-07-082026-07-072026-07-062026-07-052026-07-042026-07-032026-07-022026-07-012026-06-302026-06-292026-06-282026-06-272026-06-262026-06-25
Evidence hash
07bda1a452684e2196af00c0278d5d2dbc11558829690dc56ad538db53ffd2a6

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about Middle East & North Africa on 2026-07-09 was in the prompt.

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 30.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
88.0
okSevere

The Middle East is experiencing severe destabilization driven by a U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran and the resulting blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has heavily disrupted regional energy and food security. While some nations like Morocco secure long-term economic partnerships and cultural events continue, ongoing Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon and the collapse of U.S.-Iran diplomatic agreements underscore a highly volatile environment.

evidence 07bda1a45268…prompt p1
deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
78.0
okSevere

The collapse of the U.S.-Iran deal and ongoing military campaign against Iran, including the Hormuz blockade and airspace closures, indicate active conflict with significant economic and humanitarian fallout across the region. Israeli strikes in Lebanon raising war crime allegations and widespread instability justify a high chaos score, despite pockets of resilience like economic partnerships and cultural events.

evidence 07bda1a45268…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
70.0
okSevere

Evidence shows the collapse of the U.S.-Iran memorandum just weeks after a U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, with Strait of Hormuz closure effects still reverberating through energy, food security, aviation and global inflation, plus documented mass-casualty Israeli strikes on civilians in Lebanon and authoritarian consolidation in Tunisia. Mitigating signals — restored airline capacity, Morocco's World Bank framework, and continued commercial activity — indicate the region is stressed and escalation-prone rather than in total breakdown, and Trump's openness to renewed talks leaves a de-escalation path.

evidence 07bda1a45268…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
70.0
okUnstable

The region is experiencing heightened tensions due to the U.S.-Iran conflict, with the U.S. President declaring the deal 'over' and the IMF citing the Middle East war as a driver of economic growth slowdown. Despite some positive developments, such as the World Bank's partnership with Morocco and the continuation of Middle East design weeks, the overall situation is marked by uncertainty and potential for further escalation, warranting an unstable label.

evidence 07bda1a45268…prompt p1
claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
58.0
okUnstable

The MENA region faces significant instability driven by active U.S.-Israeli military operations against Iran, ongoing Israeli-Lebanese conflict with documented civilian casualties, disruptions to critical maritime chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz, and broader economic impacts on commodity prices and regional growth. However, some stabilizing factors exist including diplomatic openness to further U.S.-Iran negotiations, continued business and cultural activities, and international development partnerships, preventing the situation from reaching severe crisis levels despite genuine security and economic threats across multiple subregions and sectors.

evidence 07bda1a45268…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.