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Evidence inspector

Sub-Saharan Africa · 2026-07-09

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Region
Asia-PacificEuropeMiddle East & North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaNorth America
Depth profile
shallow
Date
2026-07-122026-07-112026-07-102026-07-092026-07-082026-07-072026-07-062026-07-052026-07-042026-07-032026-07-022026-07-012026-06-302026-06-292026-06-282026-06-272026-06-262026-06-25
Evidence hash
e6b8aeb38e9288244e6aba6334968c39ccb09bbf15e233d7f005378a02810b17

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about Sub-Saharan Africa on 2026-07-09 was in the prompt.

02

Can Africa take the Asian path to growth?

Agricultural productivity in sub-Saharan Africa stagnates despite rising cereal production, as farmers reduce working hours and yields per hectare decline.

economist.com
03

What Demographic Trends Mean for US Policy

Editor's Note: This brief was informed by expert presentations by Parfait M. Eloundou-Enyegue, PhD (Cornell University), Kathleen Mogelgaard (Population...

stimson.org

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 10.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
30.0
okElevated

Headlines indicate persistent structural challenges such as limited clean cooking access and stagnating agricultural productivity, but also highlight positive investments in digital infrastructure and solar energy. No acute conflict or political crisis is reported, supporting a moderate rather than severe score.

evidence e6b8aeb38e92…prompt p1
claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
28.0
okStable

Sub-Saharan Africa's headlines reflect mixed but predominantly constructive developments, with significant infrastructure investments in renewable energy, telecommunications, and electrification offsetting concerns about agricultural productivity and energy access gaps. While structural challenges like clean cooking access and stagnating farm yields persist, the evidence shows active international engagement, private sector investment, and regional success stories like Kenya's electricity gains, indicating managed rather than acute instability in the region on this date.

evidence e6b8aeb38e92…prompt p1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
25.0
okStable

The region shows signs of steady economic and infrastructural development, highlighted by major investments in solar energy and digital connectivity across countries like Senegal, South Africa, and Kenya. While chronic challenges in agricultural productivity and clean energy access persist, the absence of acute political or military crises indicates a stable geopolitical environment.

evidence e6b8aeb38e92…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
24.0
okStable

The day's evidence is dominated by development, energy-investment, and infrastructure stories \u2014 EBRD financing in Senegal, South African solar licences, Kenyan electrification gains \u2014 with no reports of armed conflict, coups, mass displacement, or political rupture in the region. Chronic structural stressors (clean-cooking deficits for roughly a billion people, stagnating agricultural productivity, missed SDG7 targets) plus a background note on authoritarian great-power competition keep the score above a true baseline, but nothing here indicates acute instability.

evidence e6b8aeb38e92…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
20.0
okElevated

The region is experiencing challenges related to access to clean cooking solutions and stagnating agricultural productivity, but there are also positive developments such as investments in digital infrastructure and solar energy, indicating a mix of stability and instability. Overall, the situation is elevated but not critical, with opportunities for growth and development amidst existing challenges.

evidence e6b8aeb38e92…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.