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Evidence inspector

North America · 2026-07-09

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Region
Asia-PacificEuropeMiddle East & North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaNorth America
Depth profile
shallow
Date
2026-07-122026-07-112026-07-102026-07-092026-07-082026-07-072026-07-062026-07-052026-07-042026-07-032026-07-022026-07-012026-06-302026-06-292026-06-282026-06-272026-06-262026-06-25
Evidence hash
4d9857f9d47fbe08e2ce94c4e8c37ec620184b2c71d3fb293de157186ce13072

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about North America on 2026-07-09 was in the prompt.

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 16.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
28.0
okStable

The evidence shows normal economic activity with corporate acquisitions in energy and insurance sectors, ongoing climate research and technology development, and routine trade negotiations with Mexico. While there are mentions of climate change impacts and policy shifts, these represent standard governance and business responses rather than indicators of political instability or social chaos in the US region itself.

evidence 4d9857f9d47f…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
20.0
okElevated

The region is experiencing significant economic and technological developments, including major acquisitions and investments in the energy sector, which suggests a level of stability and growth. However, the presence of a climate skeptic overseeing the National Climate Assessment and record-high global temperatures introduce elements of uncertainty and potential instability, warranting an elevated chaos score.

evidence 4d9857f9d47f…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
19.0
okStable

The evidence is dominated by routine business activity—large energy M&A deals, insurance product launches, industrial policy frameworks and climate research—with no indication of violence, unrest, or institutional breakdown. Mild friction appears in USMCA tariff disputes with Mexico and politicization of the National Climate Assessment, but these are policy tensions rather than destabilizing events.

evidence 4d9857f9d47f…prompt p1
deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
15.0
okStable

The headlines reflect routine economic activities, such as corporate acquisitions and insurance product launches, with no indications of political instability or civil unrest. Climate and trade discussions are ongoing but do not suggest immediate threats to regional stability.

evidence 4d9857f9d47f…prompt p1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
12.0
okStable

The provided evidence indicates a stable environment characterized by routine corporate acquisitions, technological advancements in energy, and standard trade negotiations. While the appointment of a climate skeptic to oversee the National Climate Assessment signals a shift in environmental policy, there are no signs of civil unrest or immediate geopolitical crises.

evidence 4d9857f9d47f…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.