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Evidence inspector

Europe · 2026-07-10

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Region
Asia-PacificEuropeMiddle East & North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaNorth America
Depth profile
shallow
Date
2026-07-122026-07-112026-07-102026-07-092026-07-082026-07-072026-07-062026-07-052026-07-042026-07-032026-07-022026-07-012026-06-302026-06-292026-06-282026-06-272026-06-262026-06-25
Evidence hash
e7cbf9f7c2c7d4fdd3a5ba403459c8f3fd038c69b50ec236e364b8779a8e19e0

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about Europe on 2026-07-10 was in the prompt.

08

The European ‘catenaccio’

The idea was that there was no need to have the ball and build the play; it was enough to protect your own goal, counterattack, and hope to catch the opponent...

english.elpais.com

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 15.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
35.0
okElevated

Europe faces mounting climate pressures with record-breaking heat in Western Europe and acknowledged slow progress on environmental targets, creating economic and social strain. However, the evidence shows active policy responses (circular economy discussions, renewable energy projects, cyber resilience frameworks) and no acute geopolitical conflicts or systemic institutional failures, keeping the region in elevated but manageable instability rather than severe crisis territory.

evidence e7cbf9f7c2c7…prompt p1
deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
35.0
okElevated

Europe faces significant climate-related stresses, including a record June heatwave and concerns about slow progress on environmental goals, which elevate societal and political pressures. Energy security warnings from the IEA, particularly regarding potential Strait of Hormuz disruptions and calls to review Arctic drilling, add geopolitical unease but do not indicate imminent conflict or collapse.

evidence e7cbf9f7c2c7…prompt p1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
35.0
okElevated

Western Europe is experiencing severe environmental stress due to record-breaking, deadly heatwaves that are testing regional resilience. Meanwhile, ongoing debates over energy security and climate policy highlight underlying vulnerabilities, though overall political and economic systems remain stable.

evidence e7cbf9f7c2c7…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
27.0
okElevated

The evidence is dominated by climate and regulatory policy news—record June heat with deadly impacts, EPI rankings, circular economy debates and Cyber Resilience Act compliance—rather than political violence or institutional breakdown within Europe. Elevated rather than stable because of compounding stressors: a deadly heatwave, and IEA warnings that an indefinite Strait of Hormuz closure would leave Europe facing dire energy consequences, prompting calls to revisit Arctic drilling policy.

evidence e7cbf9f7c2c7…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
20.0
okElevated

The region is experiencing extreme weather conditions, such as the hottest June on record, and is facing energy security concerns, but there are also efforts underway to address climate change and transition to a circular economy. The overall situation is stable but with notable challenges and concerns that warrant attention and action to prevent escalation.

evidence e7cbf9f7c2c7…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.