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Evidence inspector

Middle East & North Africa · 2026-07-10

The receipts. This is the exact material every model was shown for this day and region, followed by what each of them made of it — in its own words, next to the number it gave.

It is worth reading once even if you skip everything else: it is where confident-sounding reasoning and a score that turns out to be no better than chance sit side by side.

Why the evidence is identical, and how you can check

Evidence is gathered once per (date, region, depth_profile), hashed, and reused for every model in the run. A disagreement below is therefore a disagreement about identical input, not two models getting different search results. The evidence hash shown on this page is what makes that checkable.

Region
Asia-PacificEuropeMiddle East & North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaNorth America
Depth profile
shallow
Date
2026-07-122026-07-112026-07-102026-07-092026-07-082026-07-072026-07-062026-07-052026-07-042026-07-032026-07-022026-07-012026-06-302026-06-292026-06-282026-06-272026-06-262026-06-25
Evidence hash
d22a092d53924e26c0813ed2f91f832bc4f243e3c6ec59fe4d819c39a137237f

SHA-256 over the canonically serialised payload minus the hash itself, so it is stable across processes and machines. It is stored on the run and on every score row below — provenance is checkable, not asserted. Every score row below carries this same hash.

Source material · 10

shallow

These headlines, in this order, are the entire world the models were given. Nothing else about Middle East & North Africa on 2026-07-10 was in the prompt.

Extracts: not gathered at shallow depth — Stage 7 populates extracts only for standard and deep profiles. Zero here means "not requested", not "requested and empty". Full article texts: not gathered at shallow depth — only the deep profile fetches them.

The shallow profile requests 20 headlines and 10 are stored. That is a known provider cap, not a clipped payload: the Serper news endpoint returns at most 10 items per request regardless of the count asked for, and pagination has not been added. The three profiles currently differ in enrichment, not in headline breadth.

Model rationales

prompt p1

Same headlines, same rendered prompt, different readings. Where two models diverge, the disagreement is about interpretation, because the input was byte-identical and the hash proves it. The scored verdicts here span 27.0 points of the 0-100 scale.

gemini-3.1-pro-preview
google
72.0
okSevere

While economic cooperation between Israel and Egypt and fiscal stability in Saudi Arabia provide regional anchors, the ongoing war in Iran severely undermines broader Middle Eastern security. Additionally, Tunisia's fragile economic recovery highlights persistent vulnerabilities across the region that could exacerbate existing geopolitical tensions.

evidence d22a092d5392…prompt p1
claude-opus-5
anthropic
60.0
okSevere

Evidence references an ongoing war against Iran with regional humanitarian and environmental spillover, alongside economic fragility in Tunisia, indicating active interstate conflict rather than mere tension. Counterweights are notable, however: Egypt is institutionalizing strategic command capacity, the Egypt-Israel $35 billion gas expansion is proceeding, and Gulf fiscal and energy-transition indicators appear orderly, suggesting the instability is concentrated rather than region-wide.

evidence d22a092d5392…prompt p1
llama-3.3-70b-versatile
groq
60.0
okUnstable

The region is experiencing heightened tensions due to the Iran war and its exacerbation of climate vulnerabilities, while also facing economic fragility in countries like Tunisia. However, the expansion of gas export deals between Israel and Egypt, and the growth of clean energy in the MENA region, suggest that some level of cooperation and economic development is still present.

evidence d22a092d5392…prompt p1
deepseek-reasoner
deepseek
58.0
okUnstable

The ongoing Iran War is worsening climate vulnerabilities and regional instability, while the Israel-Egypt gas deal shows continued economic cooperation amid deeper political mistrust. Fragile recoveries in Tunisia and persistent geopolitical tensions are counterbalanced by Saudi fiscal discipline and clean energy transitions, yielding a moderate but clearly elevated chaos level.

evidence d22a092d5392…prompt p1
claude-haiku-4-5
anthropic
45.0
okElevated

The MENA region shows mixed signals with active military conflict (Iran war intensifying), climate vulnerabilities, and economic fragility in Tunisia, but these are partially offset by strategic infrastructure development (Egypt's Octagon command center), major bilateral economic cooperation (Israel-Egypt gas deal worth $35 billion), and positive energy transition momentum. The evidence indicates elevated tensions and environmental pressures rather than imminent systemic collapse, with some stabilizing economic and diplomatic developments present alongside destabilizing factors.

evidence d22a092d5392…prompt p1

Every model returned a parseable verdict for this evidence, so no failure card is shown. Non-ok rows are rendered by the same component — with error_text where the rationale would be — and are covered by tests/rationale_card_test.tsx.